The future lies in cities. The UN has been warning about this for some time, predicting that by the middle of this century almost 68% of people will live in urban areas, and the increase in world population will add 2.5 billion extra people to metropolises. In few places in West Africa will this “boom” be more pronounced than along the wide stretch of coastline between Abidjan in Ivory Coast and Lagos in Nigeria. If experts’ predictions are met, by 2100 this huge conurbation of almost 1000 kilometers will become the most inhabited continuous strip on the planet, with approximately 500 million people.
Not Tokyo, not New Delhi, not Shanghai, nor any other part of Asia, America or Europe. If they do this right, there won’t be such a crowded urban center on the entire planet.
striped ribbon. This is what is taking shape in West Africa, between Lagos and Abidjan: a massive, massive urbanization that threatens to become the largest continuously densely populated region on the planet, according to various analyzes published in 2022. The Guardian and The Times.
There is no shortage of straw. If population estimates are correct, it will be home to approximately 500 million people by the end of this century, that is, in 2100. For reference, it is estimated that 37.1 million people live in the entire Tokyo metropolitan area, although there is a trend towards population loss. The data is in line with the overall data for Africa, which could be home to around 40% of the global population by the end of this century, according to UN estimates.
A rosary of cities. The belt is located in the Gulf of Guinea and stretches over a wide strip of more than 900 kilometers between Abidjan, Ivory Coast’s most populous city, and Lago, Nigeria’s major metropolis. In between are other cities spread across Ghana, Togo and Benin.
The extensive coastal belt includes, for example, Takoradi, Accra, Kasoa, Prampram, Lomé and Cotonou. Cities between Abidjan and Lagos are on track to add 40 million people in a few years; cities that have become major centres, towns that were born in until recently arid environments, and others that have been swallowed by even larger centres. . With the expansion of focus and inclusion of new centers, the projected population in the coastal region will jump to approximately 51 million people in 2035.
To get an idea of the demographic dynamism of the African region, look at the example of Abidjan. According to the World Population Review, approximately 5.86 million people live in the urban agglomeration, which includes neighboring centers, and projections are close to 8.4 million in 2035, which will exceed the population of New York. Not bad if you take into account that in 1950 the African city had only 65,000 inhabitants and in 2000 it barely exceeded three million.
Lagos’ magnificent engine. If there is one city that exemplifies the region’s demographic momentum, it is Lagos, the most populous city in Nigeria and Africa. According to Statista, this city will host an estimated population of nine million people in 2023, ahead of Kinshasa. , Cairo or Alexandria. The platform talks about the population of the “real city”. Macro Trends or the World Population Review indicates that there may be just over 16.5 million residents in the metropolitan area as a whole, pushing the census to over 20 million.
What is clear is that the city will continue to grow. And at a good pace. Predictions of the World Population Review, which guarantees that it works with United Nations data, suggest that the entire Lagos region will exceed 24.4 million inhabitants in 2035, following a chain growth of 3% to 4% every year. “By 2050, the population of Lagos is expected to double again, which will make Lagos the third largest city in the world,” he concludes.
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big city in the world. There are those who go even further and point to the possibility that Lagos’s urban area will become the most populated area on the entire planet by 2100. This is what a group of experts said in an article published in 2016. Environment and Urbanization, where they note that the census that year may already have been around 88.3 million people, well above Kinshasa or Bombay.
However, demographers themselves are aware that there are variables that can affect the final image. In the case of Lagos alone, they note that the projected population will range from 61 to 100 million people, depending on “different scenarios.”
“Lagos is expected to exceed the limits of what a metropolis can be. Lagos has already experienced explosive growth in recent years and is growing so fast that no one knows how many people actually live there. More than 2,000 people are migrating to this city. Daily and population estimates are large It varies, its population is between 11 and 21 million (The World Economic Forum accepts this). It is expected to have a population of more than 88 million by the end of the century.
infrastructure problem. In its population projections for the coming decades, the World Population Review omits a caveat that goes beyond simple demographics: Lagos will grow, and will become very large, even though it has “less infrastructure than other major cities in the world.” This reflection ties into one of the biggest challenges facing West Africa that is already having an impact in 2022. Guardian: How authorities will manage one of the fastest urbanization processes in human history.
The Lagos-Abidjan corridor also has the disadvantage that the population is dispersed across five different countries with their own governments: Ivory Coast, Ghana, Togo, Benin and Nigeria. Already on the table is an ambitious project to facilitate communications: the Transwest African Coastal Highway, a vast transnational highway that will connect a dozen coastal countries in West Africa. The infrastructure will extend from Mauritania to Nigeria.
Nigeria highlighted the advantages of the 1,028-kilometer road between Lagos and Abidjan, with an estimated cost of $15.6 billion, to be undertaken with the participation of the African Development Bank in 2022. “We are talking about providing a better life for five countries and more than 40 million people who use this corridor almost every day,” the minister of public works said.
Pictures | Virgyl Sowah (Unsplash), World Bank
in Xataka | Nigeria will become the third most populous country in the world. Today your government doesn’t even know exactly how many there are.
Source: Xatak Android
Ashley Johnson is a science writer for “Div Bracket”. With a background in the natural sciences and a passion for exploring the mysteries of the universe, she provides in-depth coverage of the latest scientific developments.