Science fiction has always worked on the idea of ​​a hostile alien race invading Earth and has thrown the first stone who ever doubted if it could actually happen. The interest in this topic has been such that a recent study was actually devoted to examining the likelihood of a visit here by aliens – and came to the conclusion.

According to this study, called “Assessing the prevalence of harmful extraterrestrial civilizations” in free translation there is a chance four Among the millions of exoplanets in the Milky Way are other malevolent beings who are considering attacking us. Interestingly, this estimate was based on the possibility of a human invasion of an uninhabited exoplanet. The first step of the research method was to count the number of countries that invaded other countries between 1915 and 2022, analyze the probability that each country would invade based on the percentage of world military spending, and add each country’s individual probability of instigating an invasion. invasion. .

In the second step, the result of the previous calculation was divided by the total number of countries on Earth, which became the “current human probability of an ET invasion”. It has 0.028% chance to attack an alien race.

Taking into account a 2012 paper that predicted the possible existence of over 15,700 civilizations in the Milky Way, the final calculations show that 0.22 of these civilizations Type 1 on the Kardashev scale will be hostile if we try to contact them. This number rises to 4.42, taking into account humans who will also not be able to travel the galaxy right now. The Kardashev Scale categorizes civilizations based on the energy they can produce, control, and use.

The important point is that Alberto Caballero, amateur astronomer, PhD student in conflict resolution at the University of Vigo, and author of this and another recent article describing the famous “Wow!” and we should start with life as we know it. Also, while there is a chance, the likelihood that we will actually make contact with hostile aliens is extremely small.

“The probability of an extraterrestrial invasion of a civilization from some planet to which we send messages is two orders of magnitude less than the probability of a collision with an asteroid that can destroy life” — An excerpt from an article by Alberto Caballero.

“The probability of an extraterrestrial invasion of a civilization from some planet to which we send messages is two orders of magnitude less than the probability of a collision with an asteroid that can destroy life” — An excerpt from an article by Alberto Caballero.

Full study published in the repository arXivwithout peer review.

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Via: Vice