It may sound like a Kafkaesque delirium, but if a European walks the streets of Tokyo or any other city in Japan a few centuries from now, the same name will probably appear on every mailbox: Mr. or Mrs. Sato. singing. So will your football team’s jerseys, posters for law and doctor’s offices, self-introduction cards for business people, or posters for family businesses. Wherever you look, you’ll find the same four letters: Sato, the surname that everything, certainly the entire country, will share.

At least that’s what the math suggests.

Mr and Mrs Sato. Sato is the most popular surname in Japan, along with Suzuki, Takahashi and Tanaka. It is estimated that approximately two million people used this application in 2008, equivalent to 1.6% of the population. This is not a very large footprint compared to the Garcias’ footprint in Spain, where there are approximately 1.44 million people sharing this surname, accounting for 3% of the national census; But in the land of the Rising Sun, there are already simulations showing that Sato will continue to grow exponentially until it eclipses tens of thousands of other Japanese surnames over the next few decades. The process is so overwhelming and surprising that it already has its own name: satoization.

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Question about numbers. Professor Hiroshi Yoshida from Tohoku University, in collaboration with the Think Name Project, used a calculator and made some calculations that will help to better understand the current and, above all, the future footprint of the surname. The starting point is that Sato was the most common in the Asian country, with a rate of 1.529% in March 2023, and its rate increased by 1.0083 times last year with available data (between 2022 and 2023).

2531, the year Sato. With this data on the table, Yoshida prepared a mathematical simulation showing that by 2446, approximately 50% of the Japanese would respond to Sato’s call. If the calculations are expanded, the percentage will already reach 100% in 2531. Yoshida admits that his predictions are just that, mathematical calculations based on data and assumptions, such as that the annual growth rate will remain constant over time. subsequent decades and even centuries; but he claims that his analysis is useful for understanding what the future of Japan might be like if the surname granting system is not rethought.

playing with scenarios. Yoshida also considered other scenarios, such as what would happen if the Japanese system regulating surnames changed and couples were now forced to share surnames after passing the altar. The researcher wondered what would happen if spouses were allowed to use two separate names, for example. And the results are striking. In this case, Sato’s footprint will be much smaller: in 2531, they will represent “barely” 7.96% of the population, compared to the 100% that would be reached in the same year if couples continued to share the same surname.

Downshifting yes; brake, no. What is most curious is not the huge difference between the two percentages, but rather the process itself—even though the Japanese bride and groom may keep their surnames after passing the altar. satoization Japan would remain unstoppable. Slow down, right; but without a break.

Yoshida calculates that by the year 3310, nearly all Japanese will respond to Mr. and Mrs. Sato-san’s calls. Therefore, the change in legislation will only serve to delay the inevitable by about 750 years, but by 3310 forecasts show that the population of the Asian country, mired in an alarming demographic crisis, will have decreased alarmingly.

The reason is very simple. And once again it responds to studies, predictions, and some assumptions. The professor relied on research conducted by the Japan Trade Union Confederation in 2022, which showed that 39.9% of singles surveyed supported married couples with the same surname. Even if you choose to keep yours separate. However, the analysis was done with a limited sample: one thousand people.

But… Where does the work come from? The question is interesting because the study seems to have a very clear purpose: to fuel the debate about the Japanese surname system. In addition to Professor Yoshida of Tohoku University, behind him is the Think Name Project, which was launched on April 1, known in the English-speaking world as April Fool’s Day, or “joke day.” This choice seems deliberate precisely to gain media visibility and take advantage of the provocative mood of the day, as seen in the Think Name Project’s statement outlining the results of Yoshida’s work.

“The ‘#2531 Sato-san Problem’ action was developed together with companies and collaborative partners as an awareness project taking advantage of April Fool’s Day. It uses the results of a simulation based on statistics showing that everyone will do this in 2531. The note said, “Japan bears the surname Sato, based on surname trends in. Does this mean that the demographic study is an invention or pure fantasy? NO.

Yoshida’s calculations and report, dating back to the end of last month, were published on the Think Name website and were echoed by media outlets such as the Japan Times, Nikkei, Le Parisien and The Telegraph, which recently published it. 1 as a traditional study. Even The Guardian newspaper admits that at first there were users on social networks who “wrongly” assumed the innocence of Yoshida’s analysis.

From laws and simplicity. Although the study is a mathematical exercise, a simulation based on data and assumptions, its background goes much further. Its purpose, as Think Name emphasizes, is to depict a quirk of Japanese rule: after passing at the altar, spouses must share the same surname; This means that in 95% of cases, women adopt their husband’s name. husbands. Those who prepared the analysis warned, “It is assumed that if the current system continues, 130 thousand different surname types will gradually decrease and become a single surname.”

“Every surname has a family history and value as a cultural symbol. If it is lost, its history is also lost,” warns Professor Yoshida. Not to mention the headaches that come with having a country where everyone, absolutely all residents, share the same last name.

“If everyone becomes Sato, we may have to call each other by name or number,” the expert predicts before accepting the situation. “I don’t think this is a good world to live in.”

Image | Jezael Melgoza (Unsplash)

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