Smile. Loud hand clashing. Back patting and radiant body language feeling and overall good vibes. The greeting of Pedro Sánchez and António Costa in Brussels within the framework of the European Council in June left probably the most visual and spontaneous indication of the harmony between the two leaders, socialists and Iberians. Both fought for the “Iberian exception”, among other causes for which they fought together.

Less than a year has passed since that handshake in the heart of Europe, and the situation for both Costa and Sánchez is very different today. The first resigned in the fall. The latter is threatening to do so on Monday. Both took this step with at least widespread controversy in the background. And both staged their decisions in a completely surprising way, to the astonishment of locals and foreigners alike.

With the recent memory of the Portuguese case, its consequences and legal drift, there are already those who point to the connection between what happened with Costa and what is happening now with Sánchez. But is this the case? How are they similar and how are they different?

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One step back. That’s what Costa did on November 7. When the Portuguese leader found himself embroiled in an investigation into influence peddling, corruption and fraud, he made a devastating decision that was surprising in terms of both his power and his public opinion. timing: He visited President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa and submitted his resignation from the position of Prime Minister. Costa concluded his words in front of the press as follows: “The reputation of the position is incompatible with launching an investigation. My obligation is to protect the reputation of democratic institutions.”

“With a clear conscience”. Antonio Costa’s step forward (or backward) was surprising in another respect: on the day he went to Rebelo de Sousa’s house to formalize his resignation, he assured and repeatedly insisted to journalists that he had no idea which of his actions were considered suspicious. He said he had a “clear conscience”. “I am calm about the decision of my conscience, not only regarding illegal actions, but also regarding reprehensible actions,” he assured.

Costa assured that he left office because he believed that the Attorney General’s announcement that he would be the subject of an investigation would invalidate his right to govern the country. He wasn’t accused of anything specific; But doubt had been sown. And that was enough. At least for him. What was known at the time was that the Supreme Court had opened an investigation to clarify Costa’s role in two lithium mining and a green hydrogen project. Police also searched the Sao Bento palace, the headquarters of the Portuguese Parliament, and arrested two people close to Costa, including his private secretary.

“Is it all worth it?” Almost half a year later, it was Sánchez who threatened to leave. The forcefulness of his statement unleashed a series of reactions similar to the one Costa generated in November 2023 – after all, they are both of the same caliber; But there is an important difference between the two: timing. The former Portuguese prime minister has abruptly left office, leaving his Spanish counterpart in doubt about his continuity for several days. Did this yesterday via: a personal letterSigned by him and, among other things, allowing him to express his decision without questions from journalists.

The “unprecedented attack” in which Sánchez sees himself as a target of the “right and far right” leads him to ask the question in his letter: “Is it all worth it?” And without giving a clue as to what his next step will be, he answers himself: “To be honest, I don’t know. I need to stop and think. I urgently need to answer the question of whether it is worth it despite the quagmire I am in. The right and the far right “They intend to change politics. “Either I remain at the head of the government or I resign from this high honour.” His decision was made on Monday.

Focus, in circle. In both cases, that of Costa and Sánchez, words matter. But above all, context matters. And in both cases the context is quite evident from those closest to both leaders. The Portuguese announced his resignation after two news that happened with very little difference: the prosecutor’s office’s note announcing the investigation and, above all, the arrest of two people very close to him. One of them was the chief of staff, Vítor Escária; the other is Diogo Lacerba Machado, a businessman who is a friend of Costa and whom the prime minister trusts for sensitive tasks such as the nationalization of TAP.

In Sánchez’s case, the focus is on an even closer person: his wife, Begoña Gómez. He himself acknowledges in the letter that his decision to reconsider his continuity with Moncloa came just hours after it was revealed that a court had opened preliminary proceedings against his wife to investigate allegations of influence peddling and business corruption. The measure came as a result of a complaint by Clean Hands, which Sánchez called “right-wing extremists.”

Just before leaving the key question open, Sánchez explains: “I’m not smart. I know they accused Begoña not because she did something illegal, not because they knew there was no case, but because she was my wife.” “Is it worth it?” deserves the question.

The problem of ballot boxes and political turns. Nobody knows what will happen in Spain. There are theories and analyzes at every level reflecting a possible resignation, the risks of a hypothetical trust crisis, and the impact of Sánchez’s letter on the Catalan and European elections.

Where we already know the outcome is in Portugal. There, after Costa’s resignation, ballot boxes took to the streets as the centre-right won, albeit slightly. In addition to the obvious party change at the head of the Portuguese Government, the elections left two other important consequences: a less powerful government than the one headed by Costa and the rise of the populist Chega formation.

A failed criminal operation. Another consequence that is gradually emerging is the judicial process that once led to Costa resigning from his post. In less than six months, the Prosecutor’s Office has suffered several significant setbacks from judges who began to question the professionalism of an investigation that hastened the collapse of the Government. A few days ago, it turned out that the Lisbon Relaçao Court published an extensive decision of approximately 370 pages, in which the judges criticized the work of the prosecutors.

They even call him “incompetent”. And they point directly to Costa’s alleged involvement: “The only concrete incident involving the Prime Minister was his attendance at a presentation event on 23 April 2021. […]. “Shall it be concluded that there is influence peddling, active or passive corruption or lying from a friendly relationship with a member of the Government, publicly acknowledged and repeated by both leaders?”, the judges wrote in a paper published by the judges. Country.

Race in Brussels? Doubts about Costa’s role have become so widespread that Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa recently said he thought it was “likely” that he would preside over the European Council. The statements, which did not explicitly mention Costa, were made following recent judicial decisions showing that the accusations made by the Prosecutor’s Office were based on “mere speculation”. The prosecution would have made mistakes during its work, such as mixing up names in the minutes. There was also name confusion in Spain, along with some forgeries that marked the accusations against Pedro Sánchez’s wife.

Similarities and differences. Costa and Sánchez have careers that share many aspects in common. Both were elected leaders of their parties in 2014, their political careers were marked by separate motions of censure and they had to rely on complex alliances such as Portuguese “jargon”. The episode aired in Lisbon on November 7 and in Madrid on April 24 also has some similarities, although there are significant differences.

For tone, for form, and for staging. Sánchez, for example, regrets being the victim of “unprecedented attacks” that he blames squarely on the right and the far right. Another important difference, as Xabier Vidal-Folch recalls, is the background itself. Country: While the Prosecutor’s Office, which is a power of the state, points to Antonio Costa; Sánchez’s wife is accused by an association called Clean Hands, which admitted supporting her complaint with press clippings.

Today the person responsible took full responsibility for the media that published information about Gómez. Therefore, he warns that if they turn out to be untrue, they will be “those who will take up the lie.”

Picture | Moncloa 1 and 2

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