The price of cocoa has been out of control for several months. It has been increasing since mid-2023, but the arrival of 2024 means vertical growth that has not yet stabilized. A year ago a ton of cocoa cost less than $3,000. Today there are almost 11,000.

Welcome to the cocoa crisis, which has managed to double the historical maximum in force since 1977.

Why is it important?. Because it is the raw material of the products that are frequently found on shopping lists. From tablets to cocoa powder, desserts or ice cream. And if one of its basic components increases, the whole species increases.

So far, final product prices have not been much affected by this crisis, but stocks They will do this by using available cocoa, making the supermarket ticket or restaurant bill more expensive.

Reasons. The rains were mainly related to El Niño, which has been warned since July 2023, when the price of cocoa was still stable. Then it exploded.

The highly centralized cocoa production in several East African countries as well as northern Latin American countries allows us to further enhance our efforts in our search for those responsible. In this case it is about rains and their associated diseases. Low production is also affected by infections in some trees.

future threat. If El Niño weather repeats in the next few years, we can expect similar results, including a shortage of some chemicals that farms use to offset the effects of the climate.

How long will it rise?. The fact that cocoa is valued at almost $11,000 per metric ton at the time of this article’s publication could be the beginning of a ceiling, or worse, an increase.

Food Traveler He notes that the relevant companies have not published specific forecasts, but that the decrease would be logical if demand decreases due to rising prices.

And more worry. The European Deforestation Directive will come into force at the end of this year and one of its predicted consequences is an increase in some prices. Uncertainty remains in a market that was stable and dull until nine months ago.

Featured image | via Xataka Midjourney

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