Unfortunately, because of the immense complexity of the Sun and the imperfection of our technologies, scientists cannot tell exactly when the peak will come and when the decline will begin, he writes. 24 Channels. They can only indicate real indicators.

According to initial estimates, the solar maximum was predicted to occur in 2025, but recent observations showed such high and unusual activity even for such periods that scientists assumed the maximum would occur as early as 2024. The current cycle is expected to close around 2030.

Scientists are watching

It is the current point of the cycle that is very important for us from the point of view of monitoring space weather, because at the time of their maximum there is an increase in the number of solar flares, coronal mass ejections and solar storms.

Although these outbreaks are rare, can indirectly affect us, people. There are some technologies that are affected by solar energy output and radiation. These are, for example, satellites that begin to malfunction, begin to shut down, or even fall out of orbit and fall back into the atmosphere.

SpaceX had to build in 2022 a batch of almost newly released Starlink devices (38 out of 49 pieces)Because they were damaged by solar flare. They burned up in the atmosphere. Such solar emissions also affect communications and radio, pose a radiation hazard to astronauts, and in the worst – but rare cases – can even lead to a power outage on the planet’s surface.

Disruptions in critical infrastructure can be very costly to the economies of developed countries. Outages caused by solar activity are costly tens of billions of dollars each yearHowever, we, the end consumers, often do not notice this.

More than half of these losses come from indirect costs associated with disruptions in supply chains. Damage from solar events can lead to logistics delays, production downtime, increased operating costs, commodity shortages, and other problems in international trade.

Forecasting sunny weather also plays an important role. safe and effective space exploration. Without accurate predictions and prognostic analyses, space missions and the astronauts participating in them are exposed to the risk of radiation exposure and failure of spacecraft, rocket, and station equipment.

With all this in mind, there is a critical need to study, understand and predict space weather.

Problems and solutions

In 2024, monitoring and analysis of space weather will be carried out mainly by government agencies and scientific organizations. The two main providers of information are: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration And European Space Agency. These organizations manage data from a variety of sources, including satellite observations and ground-based observatories, to create a comprehensive picture of solar activity.

Additionally, these organizations often use empirical forecasting models. historical data. These models help identify patterns and correlations in space weather events, which can then be used to predict future events. But this information not always accurate or up to dateThis significantly reduces the relevance and effectiveness of the forecast. This is especially noticeable today, when our Sun behaves extremely unpredictable.

Humanity often suffers from the changes of its star

In March 1989, when modern space weather forecasting methods were not yet available, a powerful geomagnetic storm caused by a solar flare caused widespread technological failures and outages on the Canadian power grid. Millions of residents and businesses in the province of Quebec were without power for nine hours. Another solar flare in August of the same year caused the Toronto Stock Exchange to halt for three hours.

Such events are revealing and prove the need to develop effective systems that can provide accurate and up-to-date solar weather data. Unlike terrestrial weather, space weather is a global phenomenon that affects the entire planet. Therefore, qualitative prediction It requires collecting and analyzing data from around the world, and this can only be achieved with a global approach and extensive international cooperation..

What needs to be done?

The first important step should be to create the only global space weather data repository. This involves collecting and storing large amounts of information about solar activity from a variety of sources, such as spacecraft, ground-based observatories, and research centers in various countries.

This will help prevent data fragmentation, fill forecast gaps, and provide a comprehensive understanding of the state of space weather for anyone who needs it.

Another important step in the development of solar weather monitoring and analysis Integration of innovative solutions into space infrastructure. Currently, most space weather information comes from large government systems and satellite arrays that provide fragmented data with long delays.

Why are they doing this today?

The maintenance of these systems requires large costs for national economies and is associated with a significant number of bureaucratic obstacles. This problem can be eliminated by deploying groups of small satellites placed in low Earth orbit, and such projects are currently being worked on.

They will be a reliable replacement for expensive scientific missions and will greatly simplify the process of solar weather monitoring and reduce costs, ensuring continuous data collection and preventing the loss of important information about cosmic radiation in the event of failure of the main satellites.

a new era

Monitoring and analyzing space weather is not just a matter of scientific research, it is an urgent need that could change humanity’s future in space and on Earth. Advances in this field will open the door to many new opportunities for human civilization as a whole.

• Expeditions beyond Earth orbit will become safer and more accessible. Accurate space weather forecasts will allow space agencies to plan deep space missions with minimal risk to astronauts and equipment, paving the way for exploration of outer planets and asteroids, including colonization of the Moon and Mars. Such missions are expected to become regular by 2030.
• Protection of the world’s infrastructure will be strengthened. By understanding when and how solar storms can impact our planet, we can prevent power outages that could leave populated areas without electricity and heat, ensure stable mobile communications and internet access, and ensure the safety of air travel by significantly protecting flights. Height resulting from the radiation effect of solar storms. This will help humanity protect itself from both minor inconveniences and serious threats to health and safety.
• The development of the space economy will be encouraged. Reliable protection from the effects of solar weather will turn space tourism, resource extraction and the construction of extraterrestrial production facilities into a new reality.

SpaceX’s plans to colonize Mars thus epitomize a long-term vision for the development of the space economy. The creation of human settlements on the Red Planet involves not only the exploration and creation of new conditions for living in space, but also the creation of new economic models for the extraction and production of resources from extraterrestrial sources.

The potential, feasibility and safety of these projects largely depend on quality analysis and prediction of solar energy conditions.