Kyrgyzstan is a small republic in Central Asia with a population of seven million, bordering Kazakhstan and China, and revolutionizing the balance of trade. At least the import data of recent years shows this. Some studies suggest that German exports of cars and automotive parts to the former Soviet republic alone increased by a whopping 5,500%. The flow of goods from China, the UK, other parts of the EU, the UK and surrounding countries is also increasing.

The percentages are so surprising that there are those who find an explanation that has little to do with Kyrgyzstan’s domestic demand: Like other countries in the region, the former Soviet republic could be a backdoor for Russia to evade international trade. This has complicated trade since the occupation of Ukraine began.

Kyrgyzstan data. Although Kyrgyzstan is a small country with a population of seven million, it has been producing astonishing trade data for several years. Especially when it comes to imports. To sample a button: 5,550% increase in German flows of cars and auto parts, more than 1,100% increase in British exports, 168% increase in Chinese exports and 953% annual increase in European exports. Unity. Although the periods reflecting these percentages do not always overlap, they coincide with recent years.

balance is unbalanced. With these data, the import flow of the small former Soviet republic far exceeded its export activity. Xinhua notes that the former outpaced the latter by almost four times, with the goods and services purchased worth about $12.4 billion versus just $3.3 billion.

“Bilateral trade with Germany amounted to approximately 734 million euros in 2023 and is characterized by a large trade surplus in favor of Germany. Germany’s main exports to Kyrgyzstan are motor vehicles, machinery and chemical products,” the German executive said.

Another related fact is that much of Kyrgyzstan’s trade depends on its two most powerful neighbors: border country China, which accounted for more than a third of the Central Asian country’s business last year; and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), led by Moscow and responsible for the other 28%.

A suspicious “explosion”. According to some experts, there is little doubt about what is behind Kyrgyzstan’s import boom. And the key would be strangely out of bounds. The strength of this, and the fact that it coincides precisely with the imposition of sanctions that the West plans to punish Moscow for the invasion of Ukraine, has led many analysts to point out that Kyrgyzstan will actually serve as a backdoor to bypass Russia’s veto.

“It never comes to that.” “According to Kyrgyz data on imports from Germany, approximately half of Germany’s exports to Kyrgyzstan never reach the capital Bishkek. In other words, Kyrgyzstan is just what appears on the invoice. Things never get there. They turn to Russia. “Germany’s ‘Kyrgyzstan’ a exports, Robin Brooks of the Institute of International Finance argued in December.

Joseph Webster of the Global Energy Center suggested a similar idea in a recent article, warning that Kyrgyzstan’s trade figures “defy economic logic.” “They argue that the bulk of their imports went to a third country, Russia. The transfer of dual-use products such as bearings, vehicle parts and other items from Kyrgyzstan to Russia had military implications in the invasion of Ukraine.” .

Anything else other than tips? Beyond the surprising increase in export flows or the coincidence of dates with the sanctions imposed by the West on Russia, there may be some indicators that support this suspicion, which was also expressed by media outlets such as Reuters agency or newspapers. Telegram.

For example, in September 2022, Kyrgyzstan’s exports to Russia increased to represent 34% of its global flows, well above 14% in 2021. Other countries such as Armenia, Georgia, Tajikistan or Uzbekistan have also increased bilateral trade with Moscow. the beginning of the war.

CEIC reveals another interesting idea: It seems that a significant portion of goods within the republic are transported to a specific point: the Talas region, which is on the border with Kazakhstan, one of Russia’s closest allies in the region. While the cargo volume carried in Talas constituted 7.9 percent of the country’s total in 2021, this rate increased to 26.7 percent in 2022 and 29.2 percent in 2023. Kyrgyzstan itself has demonstrated its harmony with Russia.

The status of the German car. The German automotive industry sets a good example, as stated TelegramThe company has allocated itself a comprehensive report at the end of 2023: Its data, based on information collected by the IIF, reflects that exports of automobiles and spare parts to Kyrgyzstan increased by 5,550% in the first nine months of the year compared to the same period in 2019.

The increase coincides with the decision of major manufacturers in the sector to suspend their business in Russia. Shortly after the start of the war, BMW decided to cancel exports and Volkswagen decided to suspend deliveries. There were also significant increases in the outflow of German goods to Kazakhstan, Armenia and Georgia, although they did not reach the values ​​of Kyrgyzstan.

Focus on Central Asia. Kyrgyzstan may be the most striking example, but it is not the only one. While Germany’s exports to other countries in Central Asia or the Caucasus, such as Kazakhstan and Armenia, also recorded significant increases, there was a decrease in exports to Russia due to the sanctions plan.

“EU export data to Central Asia and the Caucasus is crazy. For example, since Russia invaded Ukraine, EU exports to Armenia have increased by 200 percent. Frankly, this material does not stay in Yerevan, it goes to Moscow, there and there Brooks warned late last year that the European Union was indeed Putin’s dream enemy.

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