Nuclear weapons are gaining weight in world geopolitics. This is also reflected by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), which left out two main ideas in its latest report on the subject. First, as “dependence on nuclear deterrence” increases, so does the development of such weapons. Second, China’s arsenal is growing much faster than any other country in the nuclear club; this includes the United States, Russia or North Korea. growth to your inventory.

This is the nuclear military map of 2024.

What was 2023 like for the nuclear arsenal? For SIPRI Director Dan Smith, the answer to this question is simple: “Although the global total of nuclear warheads continues to decline with the gradual dismantling of Cold War weapons, unfortunately we continue to see year-on-year increases in the number of nuclear warheads.” warheads operational”. In fact, Smith goes further and admits his “concern” that this trend may continue over the next few years. He even says it “will probably accelerate.”

The latest study shows that nine nuclear-armed countries – the US, Russia, UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel – continued to modernize their arsenals last year, with some even deploying new systems. weapons or nuclear capability. Technicians also confirmed that India, Pakistan, and North Korea are seeking to equip themselves with the capability to deploy multiple nuclear warheads on ballistic missiles; This is something that other countries such as Russia, the USA and more recently China have already achieved.

What do the numbers say? At the global level, the global inventory of nuclear warheads is being reduced, albeit in small print. At the beginning of 2024, SIPRI detected 12,121 nuclear warheads; that number was almost 400 fewer than a year ago; however, the number of warheads deployed on missiles and aircraft increased by 60 units, to a total of 3,904. The rest was located in central warehouses.

The Swedish institute also notes that approximately 2,100 of these warheads remain in a “state of high operational alert” for ballistic missiles. “Almost all of them belonged to Russia or the United States, but for the first time some of China’s warheads are believed to be on high operational alert,” the Swedish organization said.

Broadly speaking, Washington and Moscow (together they hold almost 90% of all nuclear weapons) are estimated to keep their military arsenals “relatively stable”; however, SIPRI acknowledges that both countries were transparent about nuclear weapons after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It is mentioned that the nuclear muscle has decreased.

China’s nuclear “surge”. Where the Swedish organization has seen a significant increase is in the Chinese arsenal. According to SIPRI estimates, if the Asian giant had 410 warheads in January 2023, in the same month of 2024 its inventory had already reached around 500. “And it is expected to continue growing,” the Swedish technicians explain. There is no other country with a similar increase. At least according to the data of the Stockholm institute.

If we look at the “total inventory,” which includes stored and withdrawn warheads, the United States and Russia are experiencing declines, the United Kingdom, France, Pakistan, and Israel remain stable, and India, North Korea, and China are growing; latter. New Delhi increased from 164 to 170, Pyongyang from 30 to 50; a larger increase in percentage terms but no increase in the number of warheads.

We are growing more than anyone else. “China is expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country,” says Hans M. Kristensen, a research fellow at SIPRI, “but almost all nuclear-weapon states have plans or significant efforts to increase their nuclear power.” The Swedish institute is not the only institution reflecting the increase in China’s nuclear muscle.

The US Department of Defense already expected in 2020 that China’s operational nuclear warhead arsenal would double this decade to around 400 by 2030; The Pentagon assumes this growth is getting closer. Their data already mentioned more than 500 warheads in May 2023.

What about in the future? SIPRI appreciates more than the growth of China’s nuclear arsenal. Although it only hints at the idea, the yearbook notes that “for the first time, it is possible for China to place a small number of warheads on missiles in peacetime.” Its technicians also see it as plausible that the Asian giant could equal Russia or the United States in intercontinental ballistic missiles by the end of the decade, but they clarify that this will depend on Beijing’s strategy and its nuclear warhead inventory is expected to increase. It remains “much smaller” than the US.

Once again, he is not alone in his predictions. The Pentagon report also predicts that China’s nuclear arsenal will continue to be strengthened in the coming years until it exceeds a thousand operational nuclear warheads by 2030; This figure far exceeds estimates used just four years ago.

“These changes in the number, capacity, and readiness of the People’s Republic of China’s nuclear forces in the coming years are likely to exceed the possible advances of any adversary’s nuclear forces,” it states.

Pictures | Ministry of National Defense People’s Republic of China (Xinhua/Lan Hongguan) and SIPRI

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