In a famous scene from The Simpsons, the residents of Springfield are forced to move the town five miles away because Homer Simpson’s disastrous tenure as garbage commissioner has turned the original site into a landfill. Well, it’s the same thing, but with huge apartment towers, beach bars and souvenir shops jutting out onto the A2 and A7 on the way to the Cantabrian coast. And not because of the garbage, no: because of the heat.

If Springfield was on the Mediterranean coast, this is what The Simpsons would be like. This is the future we need to see.

In fact, this seems to be the current situation. At least that’s what he said last year. Daily mail: British travel agents have warned of a “fall in bookings to Spain and Italy to avoid the scorching heat.” Their sources cite a 10% drop from June to November 2022. That’s not the only sign of trouble. In a report published last year, CaixaBank Research also found that “interest in travel to Spain fell sharply in the UK in June 2023.”

It was actually 12.5% ​​below expectations.

But is it because of the weather? While the results of a survey by the European Travel Commission (ETC) show that 76% of European travellers are changing their habits due to the climate crisis, reports focusing more on Spain do not result in a “wetting”.

CaixaBank Research, for example, does not mention a climate issue. The analysis notes that, on the one hand, there are the UK’s macroeconomic problems, the sharp rise in interest rates and the difficulties of the pound; on the other, there is pressure from competitors. Turkey, Greece and Portugal are “becoming more competitive in meeting UK demand.”

For this reason? But there are signs that concerns about the heat may not be so misleading. For starters, the ETC survey found that 33.7% of Europeans are avoiding places where extreme weather events are likely, while 17.3% are ruling out very hot areas. And that’s starting to feel strangely noticeable.

To the northOn an international level, Black Tomato co-founder Tom Marchant said: CNBC “Scandinavian destinations such as Finland, Norway, Sweden and Iceland are experiencing a sharp increase.” In particular, there was a 37 percent increase compared to last year.

Nationally, Destinia’s general manager Ricardo Fernández announced in 20 minutes that domestic tourist bookings were up 7% in Galicia and the Cantabrian Sea, but down 4% in the rest of the country. El Economista used data from Expedia Group to report that “search for holiday homes in popular destinations such as Costa Blanca, Costa Brava and Mallorca remained stable from June to July, but interest in renting homes increased in northern Spain.”

The results are clear. Actually yes We are paying attention with Reactions inside social networksis very noticeable. Without going into the problems of the Mediterranean or the Canary Islands, there is criticism about the overcrowding in the north and although (as we will see) the numbers have not fully developed, Asturias, without going any further, seems to have been a record this year and in recent years there has been a very intensive process of developing its tourist infrastructure (with more than 13 international airlines recently created).

But for businessmen, the data is not round. The principality cannot reach 50% occupancy (something Cantabria and the Basque Country have achieved, albeit marginally) and the Hotel and Tourism Association in Asturias (Otea) has admitted that figures are worse than expected. Last year, the data improved.

The release of Leviathan. So, while tourist interest is increasing and tourism infrastructure is slowly developing, it is clear that the sector has a long way to go. The question we could not ask ourselves in the 60s, but can ask ourselves now, is: What exactly is this path?

Tourism cannot grow without tourism infrastructure, because “overtourism” quickly becomes a local problem. But building these tourist infrastructures is not a neutral or harmless decision. After all, it is a relatively easy source of income to develop for an attractive country like Spain. However, this requires investment in a low-value sector: a sector that has proven to be very difficult to control.

A ‘transformation’ that has been awaited for decades. Since the industrial transformations of the 80s, northern Spain has been in a very complex situation. Regions that went from having very solid, rich and productive socio-economic structures to having practically exploded. This had its consequences. There are already those who speak of a “third great depopulation”.

Betting on tourism is logical but (as I said) it is not a return to the good old days. Yes, for many reasons. But first of all, “the average salaries of the different industrial sectors in Spain range from an average of 28,000 euros/employee in the manufacturing sectors to 54,000 euros/employee per year in the energy sectors. If we go to the service sector, excluding the financial sectors, their prices range from 15,000 euros to 28,000 euros. There will be other times: maybe the best we can get, but they will be different.

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In Xataka | Extreme heat poses biggest challenge to Spanish tourism: summers in Scandinavia more attractive than Mallorca

Image | manual mv

*A previous version of this article was published in August 2023.