China is facing a demographic challenge. A huge number that can be summed up in just two numbers. If the estimates are correct, within a decade the country will be home to more than 450 million people over the age of 60, well above the 20% in 2022, or 32.7% of the census. The opposite trend will continue in the workforce, where the entire working-age population will be in free fall. The math suggests that this range will soon be in free fall, reaching the levels the country achieved in the 1980s, in the middle of this century.

Faced with such a landscape, which means many more elderly people and fewer workers to support them, the Xi Jinping Government has decided to take several steps. One of these is to raise the retirement age. Another is to encourage the elderly to volunteer and help less developed areas of the country.

What do the numbers say? These curves come in China’s demographics. Dangerous curves. Even as the country loses its second consecutive population in 2023 and reaches its lowest birthrate since records began, the real challenge looms: As the population ages, it will face more elderly people and fewer working-age people. So the Asian giant is preparing for a future with fewer contributions and greater burdens on its coffers.

A few months ago, before the retirement age was reconsidered, it was estimated that in just ten years, around 300 million Chinese would reach retirement age, thus joining the population already exceeding that limit.

Is there more? Yes, that’s only part of the problem. The World Bank has already detected a slight decline in the 15- to 64-year-old population, but medium-term projections are even less promising. Statista tables show that by the middle of this century, there will be 745.3 million people in China in this age group (15-64), a far cry from the billion recorded years ago.

The opposite trend will continue in the elderly population. If there were 254 million people over the age of 60 in 2019, this number will exceed 400 million in 2040.

I’m looking for solutions. The panorama is not simple. Therefore, Beijing has already put in place several measures. The most relevant, in terms of its scope, impact and, above all, its unpopularity, is the extension of the retirement age for the first time in the country since the mid-20th century. The idea is that the increase will be implemented gradually, starting in 2025. For men, it will increase from 60 to 63 in 2040.

For women, the age will increase from 50 or 55 to 55 and 58, respectively, depending on the type of work they do. Another measure taken by the government is to encourage its elderly to do volunteer work.

Rethinking the elderlyThe news appeared in the newspaper a few days ago. South China Morning Post: The government has published a set of guidelines to encourage older people to volunteer for community services. The idea is simple: in a complex demographic scenario marked by ageing and the gradual decline of the working-age population, they will be able to contribute their experience to underdeveloped regions.

To be more precise, SCMP It allows the National Committee on Aging to encourage the elderly to volunteer in community activities. Local governments are responsible for facilitating the elderly to participate in patrols, childcare, elder care, and helping disabled or rural children while their parents are working. In China, a large proportion of the elderly live alone or with their spouses.

“They continue to contribute to society”. The idea will go beyond theory and be translated into practice with concrete measures. For example, reserving a portion of volunteer positions at major events for seniors or creating an online platform to facilitate their organization. Another of the committee’s recommendations is to continue researching and collecting examples that demonstrate “the spirit of seniors who continue to contribute to society like old horses.”

A new measure? Not at all. The government’s guidelines focus on Silver Age Action, an initiative launched long ago in 2003 that—reminiscent of the AARP—organizes retired professionals to volunteer in the West and less developed regions. The idea is simple: use their experience to promote the country. The approach was interesting 20 years ago. And now, with the demographic engine taking over and the threat of aging.

What the National Committee is proposing, the SCMP said, is to “update” and promote the Silver Age Action program, “improving its quality and effectiveness to protect the rights of the elderly to participate in economic and social development.” The organization therefore asked authorities to consider the initiative in interprovincial cooperation and local development plans.

In 2013, a decade after the initiative launched, AARP estimates that five million older professionals nationwide participated as volunteers, benefiting nearly 300 million people and creating more than $1.2 billion in value, according to the organization.

Growing old… What about opportunity? The gradual aging of the population and the loss of labor force represent a challenge for China, as well as a business opportunity in the growing Silver Economy market that taps into the potential of older people. In 2021, the State Council encouraged the “active promotion” of the country’s silver economy.

New York Times recently published a comprehensive report with revealing information about this booming economy: More than 20,000 kindergartens will be closed in China between 2022 and 2023, and the number of teachers will decrease by 5% in just one year. Meanwhile, the number of elderly care centers has increased rapidly in a short time, doubling since 2018.

Images | Galen Crout (Unsplash) and Chastagner Thierry (Unsplash)

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