In just a few weeks, the tumultuous relationship the two Koreas have always maintained appears to be going through an extremely delicate period. First, these were a barrage of garbage and feces-laden balloons over South Korea. Then the “leaflet-publishing” drones in which North Korea blamed the South. And more: accusations, explosions on the roads, a pseudo-army of millions of people ready for war. The latest: Kim Jong Un just “touched” the constitution, and that’s not good news.

News. A few hours ago, the BBC published an announcement from North Korea through state media. Apparently, North Korea’s constitution has been rewritten to include a definition: South Korea is officially a “hostile state.” It is also the first time it has been mentioned in Pyongyang’s constitutional review.

According to the state-run Rodong Sinmun newspaper, this is an “inevitable and legitimate measure” at a time when tensions between the Koreas have reached their highest point in recent years. As many experts were quick to explain, this constitutional amendment is more than a symbolic move.

Inside the story: first balloons, then drones. Tensions began around May, when hundreds of balloons carrying bags began flying over several provinces in South Korea. Inside: used plastic bottles, old batteries, shoe remnants… also manure and in some cases animal feces.

The answer came in October. North Korea later accused South Korea of ​​sending drones to distribute leaflets containing “seditious rumors” that Pyongyang interpreted as an act of war. Then Kim Jong Un’s influential sister, Kim Yo Jong, warned of “terrible consequences” if drone flights continued. Although Seoul initially denied the allegations, the military later said it could neither confirm nor deny the incident.

Explosions on the roadside. Shortly after a high-level meeting, Kim Jong Un instructed his military to prepare immediate action measures and defend North Korea’s sovereignty. North Korea’s destruction of two important symbolic roads (Gyeongui and Donghae) following the drone accusations was interpreted as a clear sign that the North was not interested in negotiating with the South.

In response, the South Korean military opened fire on its side of the border and increased surveillance in a show of force. Additionally, the government of Gyeonggi province, which surrounds Seoul, has designated 11 border areas as “danger areas” to prevent further leafleting to the north.

Is war on the horizon? The truth is that the two sides technically remain at war since the Korean Conflict ended with an armistice in 1953, but there is no formal peace treaty. Historically, reunification with the South has been a key part of North Korean ideology, but Kim Jong Un abandoned that goal in early 2023.

Instead of seeking unification, Kim appears to have strengthened ties with Russia and maintained close ties with China, moving further away from the United States and other Western allies, including South Korea. Now, in the wake of the drone incident and explosions, China has called for some calm on the Peninsula and urged all parties to avoid further escalation of tensions.

To fight for the Constitution. The last of the moves, touching on the constitution, came with Pyongyang’s threat that 1.4 million young people were enrolling in the army. According to Bruce Bennett, a defense analyst at the Rand Corporation, “the term ‘hostile states’ has characterized North Korean communications for almost a year. Kim and his sister have made a series of nuclear weapons threats against him. [Corea del Sur] Tensions increased between the USA and the USA with many actions. Therefore, the risks have increased.”

Yet there is no doubt that no one wants or expects an imminent war. “I doubt the situation will escalate to the level of war,” said Professor Kang Dong-wan, who teaches political science and diplomacy at Dong-a University in Busan. “North Korea is taking advantage of military conflict to strengthen internal harmony.”

Aggressive rhetoric will likely remain verbal only, as both Pyongyang and Seoul must be aware of the high costs of war. But the situation remains fluid and future actions will depend on both parties’ strategic management of the crisis and the influence of external actors, for example China or Russia (and the United States).

Image | J. Patrick Fischer, Prachatai

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