Estimating the exact number of deaths in an active war is not complicated, it’s impossible. For this reason, statistics to evaluate the death toll often turn out to be different. Once combat became simpler, we actually have graphs of all the people killed in conflict since 1400, or more detailed and animated graphics to put the “casualties” of specific battles into perspective. The data we give below regarding Ukraine is not only shocking, but also the final touch to the brutal demographic crisis that began a long time ago in Eastern Europe.

Data. Since Russia launched its large-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine’s population has decreased by 10 million, about a quarter of its total population, according to data provided by the UN. This drastic and extraordinary decline is the result of an explosive mix: mass exodus of refugees, falling birth rate, and war-induced deaths.

Fertility is falling. Florence Bauer, head of the UN Population Fund for Eastern Europe, said the occupation had worsened an already fragile demographic situation. The birth rate in Ukraine has fallen to one of the lowest on the planet, at one child per woman.

Of course, this is not a trivial fact, because a fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman is needed to maintain a stable population. In other words, the decline has left the country facing a highly uncertain future, with births absent and family life disrupted. And all this with a war fought on the territory of the country.

Context. Before the war, the population of Ukraine in 2021 was around 40 million. But there is more. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, this number was more than 50 million. The war accelerated this trend of population loss, which was already affecting many countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

However, refugee migration still appears to be the main factor in this decline; 6.7 million Ukrainians currently live mostly in Europe.

He died in the war. We said at the beginning that it is impossible to know the exact death toll in an active conflict, but at this point in the conflict it is estimated that tens of thousands of people have died. In this context, Bauer emphasized that a more accurate calculation of the demographic situation would only be possible after the conflict by conducting a comprehensive census.

As he explains, the hardest-hit areas include those where populations are shrinking, where only the elderly remain, and where families are delaying setting up new homes.

Big crisis. There is a much broader crisis in the background. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, Eastern European countries have experienced dramatic population declines, exacerbated by immigration, low birth rates, and aging. This phenomenon has become especially acute in countries such as Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania and Ukraine, whose populations have decreased by up to 20% in the last 30 years.

In this sense, the opening of borders was very important because millions of people left Eastern Europe in search of better economic opportunities in the Western region. In countries such as Romania and Bulgaria, it was seen that a large part of the young and skilled workforce emigrated. Romania, for example, has lost more than 3.4 million people since 1990, while Latvia’s population has decreased by 25% since joining the EU in 2004.

At least birth. It’s the other big leg that can’t be held. Fertility rates have fallen significantly in almost all countries in the region. The birth rate in Bulgaria is only 1.5 children per woman, which is well below the replacement rate of 2.1 children. Ukraine, as we said, reached even lower figures due to war and economic conditions, with only one child per woman.

All this only aggravates the demographic crisis and the number of younger generations to replace the aging ones is decreasing. Latvia and Bulgaria, for example, currently have one of the highest proportions of people over the age of 65 in Europe, putting great pressure on their health and social welfare systems.

Uncertain future. As we can see, the devastating data coming out of Ukraine appears to be the final straw in a crisis that began three decades ago and has not stopped since. Moreover, the future is not very promising. It is estimated that some Eastern European countries could lose up to 30% of their population by 2050, increasing the shortage of young workers and again accelerating aging.

What about in Russia? We cannot finish drawing the demographic scenario without the other actor of the conflict. Russia also experienced a serious demographic crisis since (and before) the beginning of the occupation. In the first six months of this year, the country recorded its lowest birth rate since 1999; This is a fact that even the Kremlin described as a “disaster”.

The country, which had a population of more than 140 million before the war, faces an unknown future in terms of demographics; This reflects, as it could not have been otherwise, the devastating impact of war at all levels.

Image | Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Houses of the Oireachtas

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