The US confirmed that South Korean troops had landed on Russian soil, but some form of confirmation from those “affected” was missing. Putin seems to be shifting the topic without saying anything. The Russian President neither confirmed nor denied, but stated that defense cooperation with Pyongyang was an internal decision for Moscow. Amidst all this mystery, one thing seems clear: Very few North Korean soldiers will defect.

A very large but limited force. The New York Times reported this week that North Korea has deployed one of the largest military forces in the world, with 1.3 million active soldiers and 7.6 million reservists, or about 30% of the population. Moreover, they allocate a large part of the national budget to the armed forces with the “army first” policy they have been developing for years.

But decades of sanctions and the end of Soviet support deteriorated the quality of conventional equipment. The figures used speak of 4,300 tanks, 8,800 guns, 810 warplanes and 70 submarines; however, many of these are outdated and have limited access to basic supplies.

Logistical limitations and modernization. As we have said before, Pyongyang’s capabilities face critical challenges, particularly the shortage of fuel, food and spare parts, which are factors that hinder its operations. Faced with these limitations, Kim Jong-un doubled down, allocating a large percentage of GDP to strengthen his military forces through a modernization that included nuclear weapons, 5,000 tons of chemical weapons, and approximately 6,800 elite cyber units.

Additionally, the North Korean military is organized under a strict hierarchical system, with mandatory military service of 8 to 10 years for men and 5 years for women. The “special operations force”, one of the five branches of the military, has 200,000 soldiers trained for operational operations; However, the Times notes that some (smaller numbers) of soldiers sent to Russia may have been forced laborers and may not have received direct combat training. .

Strategic role. Here’s a clue about the few and far between departures: North Korea’s extreme militarization is vital to its priority branch mantra, so much so that it uses its armed forces as its main diplomatic and economic tool.

These units also participate in commercial activities, from arms sales to cyber theft, a network that provides additional funds to the regime. In fact, Kim Jong-un used this influence to strengthen his negotiating position, especially on nuclear issues. This is why everything is “fine-tuned” when troops go into battle.

Tight control. Given the deployment of North Korean troops in Ukraine in support of Russia, many media outlets are talking about the possibility that the troops may try to escape; Kim Jong-un’s regime is trying to avoid this with strict measures. The most loyal soldiers are therefore dispatched and escorted by Party officers who supervise them and report every detail of their behavior.

To deter any escape attempt, North Korea has threatened retaliation against soldiers’ families if they defect, they told Insider. These soldiers often leave their people in the country; This is a practice implemented by the regime to keep them under control. The escape would apparently have serious consequences for these relatives, who would face severe punishment including imprisonment in labor camps, a practice they call “intergenerational punishment.”

Supervision. The regime takes strong measures to ensure the loyalty of its soldiers by sending troops to a foreign country. These soldiers are reportedly constantly monitored by Korean Workers’ Party officers, who evaluate and report on every action, from alcohol consumption to attempts to acquire goods not available in North Korea. These controls are designed to minimize the risk of wear.

The New York Times also noted that the opposite was true for those who had served the nation without issue, when deployed soldiers returned to North Korea for “retraining” sessions and rewards that strengthened their loyalty.

It will come in Ukraine. The big question everyone is asking is: Will North Korean troops eventually go to war? From the West’s perspective, there are analysts who think that the deployment of North Korean troops in Ukraine could create a strategic opportunity that would expose these troops to external influences and weaken Pyongyang’s ideological control. The argument is that the presence of North Korean soldiers in Ukraine, exposed to values ​​different from those of the regime, could become a weak point that Western countries could exploit to encourage defection and introspection within North Korean ranks.

Of course, this is all rhetoric until we go to war.

Image | 李季霖, Roman Harak

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