Numbers are numbers. Sometimes they draw disaster scenarios. Others provide some joy. If we talk about demographics, they know both in Seoul. A few days ago the statistical observatory Kostat threw a bucket of water cold He cooled the country by reminding us that a years-long birth rate crisis had pushed the labor market, where about 25 percent of workers are over 60, to the brink. Now the same organization has left information that invites optimism, albeit in a calm language: There has been an almost uninterrupted increase in births and marriages in South Korea since April.

The real question is… Is this a mirage or a turning point?

What do the statistics say? There is a lot of news about demographics in South Korea. Usually in a pessimistic tone. The country bid farewell to 2023 with a fertility rate (the average number of children a woman is expected to give birth to in her lifetime) of 0.72; This was a double “blow”.

First, because it deepens the downward spiral. Just a year ago, the same indicator was at 0.78, and the country had long been far from the average of 2.1 children per woman considered necessary to keep the population stable. The prospect of growth sounds like science fiction.

The second reason is that the data places South Korea at the bottom of the world in terms of fertility rate. This dubious honor in statistics is disputed with Taiwan. With the current drift, South Korea’s population is projected to be below 27 million by the end of the century, a far cry from 51.7 million in 2022. Social, economic and even defense against such a scenario.

And the surprise came. Given this background, it is much better to understand the prospects that the latest data from Statistics Korea (Kostat) creates in the country in two key areas: birth rates and marriages. Both are thriving in the midst of demographic winter. And at a good pace. This is also reflected in local media such as Yonha agency or Korea Times. In August, 20,098 babies were born in the country; this was a 5.9% increase compared to the same month in 2023, with 17,527 couples married; This reflects an even more significant growth of 20% compared to the previous year.

Data is good on its own, but it becomes even better when placed in context.

I’m looking forward to August. This is not the first month that South Korea has breathed a sigh of relief with its birth rate balance. It grew by 5.9% on an annual basis in August, but grew by 7.9% in July, 2.7% in May and 2.8% in April.

Throughout this period – indicates Korea Times— Only minor “distress” was recorded in June, when the number of births decreased by 1.8%. The same goes for marriages. They grew 20% in August but have been doing so consistently since April. In this respect, after a slightly weak June, the annual increase in July was close to 33%. In fact, they have already grown just shy of 1% in 2023, breaking the 11-year negative trend.

“Is Korea getting better?” The question is not ours. This is the holder with it Korea Times He begins his chronicle with Kostat’s data. The use of questions is more interesting than the content of the sentence. While the country appears to be on a good track, and there are already some who are showing hope that it will manage to increase fertility and birth rates for the first time in years, there are also reasons for caution.

The most important of these is that the global balance is not good for 2024. At least not today. The last few months may have been positive, but the fertility rate remained at 0.71 in the second quarter, marking the lowest level in history. 158,000 births were also recorded between January and August, still 0.4% less than last year. There was also a 5.6 percent increase in the number of deaths compared to 2023, and Yonhap reminds that since the end of 2019, the number of deaths has always exceeded the number of births.

A mirage? Another reason why there are still people in Seoul reluctant to uncork the champagne is that the latest birth rate data may be the result of a particular context rather than revealing a change in trend. So it’s kind of a mirage. Yonhap agency also reminds that this phenomenon may be partly related to the hangover caused by the health crisis.

After all, the increase in birth rates follows a sudden increase in marriages in the country between the second half of 2022 and the first half of 2023; During this period, many couples who had to postpone their weddings due to COVID were finally able to say “I do.” I want it.” Therefore, the following question may be asked: Are couples who postpone their weddings now giving birth to their first child?

How to interpret? Big question. “To convincingly argue that these indicators have fully recovered, we need to see the birth rate continue to rise over the next year or two,” he notes. Korea Times Lee Chul-hee is a professor at Seoul National University. Lee Sam-sik of the Health and Welfare Association has a similar view, warning that a “surprise increase” in births and marriages in recent months “does not guarantee a long-term increase”.

There are those who associate the latest Kostat data with the Government’s efforts to alleviate the serious birth rate problem.

Demography in the country has long since ceased to be a secondary issue and become a priority problem. He recently declared a “national demographic emergency” with the aim of implementing a coordinated plan between different Government departments and “tackling the problem of low birth rate”. In May, the president even talked about creating a ministry focused on combating the “low fertility rate” the country is suffering from.

It’s a serious problem. On a percentage basis, it’s completely understandable that Seoul’s birth crisis is so alarming. Beyond its effects on the economy, health, and defense, the demographic winter has plunged Korea into an unmanageable social scenario. And the key is again given by Kostat.

A few weeks ago, it released a study that found that nearly one in four workers in the country is 60 or older. This explains why debates about the amount of pension benefits and retirement age arise in the country.

Statistics Korea charts show that the pool of workers currently extinguishing 60 candles has reached historic highs at approximately 6.74 million people. There were 272,000 fewer people a year ago. They currently represent 23.4% of the workforce, three percentage points higher than in May 2021. There is also another equally relevant piece of information: workers in the previous age group, from 50 to 59 years old. The stock also reached high values, reaching 60s in a short time. Their total is approximately 6.72 million.

Image | David Peterson (Flickr)

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