There are approximately 8 billion people, and by 2080 this number will increase to 10.3 billion. The problem is that although there will be more people on Earth, not all regions will grow homogeneously, and there are already those who argue that the real problem of the 21st century is demographic. In countries such as Spain, the United Kingdom, or in more dramatic cases such as South Korea, there are serious doubts about how a non-renewable population can meet the needs of an increasingly aging population.

And this demographic problem can be seen perfectly in the chart created by Visual Capitalist:

Well below average. According to data collected by Statista, it shows the countries with the lowest fertility rates in 2024. Thus, we can see that there is a real demographic problem in Asia, with Taiwan at the bottom of the list, as well as the aforementioned South Korea and Singapore. Hong Kong and Macau are on par with Ukraine, with a rate of 1.2 children per woman of reproductive age, while Spain is not far behind with a rate of 1.3 children.

Other countries include Italy, Poland, Japan, Greece, Puerto Rico or Costa Rica, where fertility rates are lower than 2.1 children per woman. This is considered “ideal” because it is what guarantees the renewal rate. This rate assumes no migration and the death rate is constant, ideal for replacing both parents when they die.

free fall. Currently the world average is 2.3 children per woman; This figure is a far cry from the 1950 average of five births per fertile woman. The term “woman of reproductive age” includes women between the ages of 15 and 45; The indicator they took to create this chart.

This situation causes the population in countries in Central, South and Southeast Asia, Latin America and North America to continue to increase until 2100, while the population is expected to increase in other regions such as Europe. 7% decrease in population by 2050.

with an asterisk. It should be noted that there are now a variety of indicators that can be taken into account to make these demographic forecasts. For example, one of these is the crude birth rate, which expresses births per 1000 people. Another is the global fertility rate, which takes into account the average number of births for each woman of childbearing age (15 to 45 years) if she were to live to the end of her life, adjusted for her corresponding level by age group and average.

Therefore, depending on the indicator considered, we can see more or less dramatic cases. For example, in South Korea, where crude birth rates are much lower than fertility rates, we see that there are currently 0.72 children per woman; This is the lowest birth rate in the world. And considering all this, the data is based on estimates.

Spain. However, as we said, Spain is quite determined. Last year we already counted 900 babies being born per day; It was the lowest number since data has been available, and even then a fertility rate of 1.3 children per woman was recorded. Moreover, the system is in a state of change; More babies are born to 41-year-old mothers than to 25-year-old mothers. This has led to a 24.1% decline in births in the last decade and a negative vegetative balance.

This makes Spain increasingly a pet country and less a child country. According to INE, 1.8 million children under the age of four were registered in 2022. In 2011 there were almost 2.5 million; this represents a significant decline in just over a decade.

dramatic cases. It is often said that the wickedness of many is the consolation of fools. There are also countries that are worse off than Spain in terms of demographics. Much worse. Ukraine is an example because of the demographic crisis that began developing three decades ago but has worsened since Russia’s invasion: the country has lost 10 million people since then. We have countries like China, where there are more pets than children, and different measures are implemented to “interfere” with women’s decisions regarding motherhood.

But the most dramatic example is South Korea. The Asian country is so desperate to encourage its birth rate that it has introduced measures such as a €70,000 super baby voucher, encouraging the hiring of foreign nannies and something that might seem crazy: girls starting school before boys. Idea? Create a one-year age difference between boys and girls at school; This will make them more attractive to each other when they reach marriageable age. Yes, desperate measures.

Results? It is assumed that the birth rate will increase by encouraging families who have doubts about the cost of having children through measures such as super checks. Turning to South Korea, the country has experienced an almost uninterrupted increase in both marriages and births since April. It’s a good sign that both are growing in the midst of demographic winter. The country has had several months with a positive inter-annual birth rate, but the real problem is that it is too early to open the champagne, as this data may be the result of a mirage.

The reason is that this increase in marriages occurred in the post-Covid-19 years, when many couples had to postpone their engagements, and there are some who interpret this explosion in births as the result of couples postponing their weddings.

In any case, although the indicators are more or less accurate, it is clear that in many countries there is a major demographic crisis and great concern about who will support systems such as pensions.

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