Just 200 years ago we were less than 1 billion people. We are marking a milestone by reaching 8 billion in 2022. Population growth has been drastic over these two centuries, and we are expected to continue increasing until we reach over 10.3 billion in the coming years. The bad news is that this will happen somewhere towards the end of the century, and from then on we will be in free fall.

Deaths will outnumber births, and that’s something reflected very visually in this graphic from Visual Capitalist:

Tipping point: 2080. We say that 200 years ago we were four cats on earth, but there is no need to go back that far. The world population has increased by 2 billion people in just 20 years, but future predictions are not very optimistic. In the UN’s latest demographic report called “2024 Revision of World Population Prospects”, it is estimated that we will grow in the next 60 years, as in the last 20 years.

We will reach more than 10 billion people, but at some point in the 2080s the population will begin to decline. Specifically, the population is expected to decline by approximately 13 million people by 2100, and it is estimated that one in four people in the world currently lives in a country whose population has already reached its maximum.

95% confidence. These are hard to get right because more than half a century is a long time (which tells us we won’t have another pandemic like COVID-19) but that’s why these predictions are given at 95% confidence intervals. . This means that in the upper band of the range, births will exceed deaths in 2100, while in the lower band the decline will begin around 2060.

Productivity and retirement. This forecast by the UN shows that by 2080, the number of people aged 65 and over will surpass those under the age of 18. Similarly, by the mid-2030s, the number of the population aged over 80 is estimated to reach 265 million people, surpassing infants (children one year old and under). And that’s going to be a double whammy.

On the one hand, the most obvious: pensions, because it is possible that some countries and systems cannot guarantee social services to an increasingly aging population. On the other hand, lack of labor force. What the UN proposes is that the use of technology should be considered as increasing productivity at all ages, as well as creating opportunities to extend the working lives of those who want to continue working, for example, thanks to multi-generational working.

Japan a look into the future. In fact, this shortage of workers is nothing new, and we have been looking at this future in Japan for some time. The country is one of those experiencing a demographic winter, with fewer than 800,000 births in 2022; This is the lowest number since records began. The country has an increasingly aging population, causing a labor shortage.

That’s why we see robots being created to perform specific tasks that humans have previously faced, with companies like McDonald’s opening up their hiring policies or encouraging experienced workforces.

Migration to the rescue. And without leaving Japan, the country is also looking for migrant labor in the countryside. The same situation occurs in Spain. In fact, the UN states that migration will be the main driver of growth in some populations. In 50 countries, migration is projected to moderate population declines that are sustaining low fertility rates.

What is clear is that, although these are predictions, demographers are not at all optimistic about the future of the world population pyramid in a few decades; Therefore, implementing policies that will help increase birth rates will be crucial, especially in countries such as the one mentioned above. Besides Japan, also in Spain, China, Taiwan or South Korea.

in Xataka | Humanity broke a disturbing record in 2023: We failed to reach regeneration rate for the first time