If what some experts are starting to say is true and the Ukrainian War cannot be continued after 2025, we are approaching an end with Russia especially prominent, it is not known what kind of ending is approaching. If there was any doubt, the president, who has only a few weeks left in office, has decided to speed things up a bit. The United States has literally just entered the conflict, and its hero is “long-range.”

Biden raises his finger. Trump, the current US president, lifted the ban on Ukraine using long-range missiles in attacks on Russian territory, marking an unprecedented turning point in the conflict. The authorization includes the use of an important actor: the use of 300-kilometer-range Atacms missiles against Russian and possibly North Korean forces, especially those deployed in the Kursk region.

The decision (which has not been officially confirmed by the White House) is apparently based on the presence of 10,000 North Korean troops joining Russian troops; This marks the first time Pyongyang has deployed forces abroad since the Korean War in 1953. We remember that it was reported that North Korea could send up to 100,000 additional troops if the alliance with Russia strengthens. Essentially, this is a decision that marks a significant policy change two months before Trump takes over the presidency again.

Why now? This is a big question. The BBC revealed yesterday that apart from the presence of North Korean troops in the conflict, the move could also respond to the need to strengthen Ukraine ahead of possible peace negotiations. In this way, Biden aims to ensure that Ukraine has a stronger position on the battlefield and potentially in future diplomatic talks.

Of course, there is a possibility that this decision resulted from an attempt to maximize the military support given to Kiev before Trump, who criticized military aid to Ukraine, took office.

What are ATACMS missiles? We are talking about short-range ballistic systems produced by Lockheed Martin, designed to attack strategic targets at long distances. They can reach up to 300 km and carry 220 kilos of explosives or cluster bombs. These missiles are launched from mobile HIMARS platforms currently supplied to Ukraine or from M270 launchers sent by the UK and Germany.

With origins dating back decades and developed in the 1980s to destroy high-value Soviet targets, ATACMS was one of the first precision-guided systems in the United States. There are currently two types in the Pentagon’s inventory: one with a single explosive and the other with a cluster munition, although the use of the latter is limited due to risks to civilians in post-conflict. Advantages? Their ability to fly at high altitudes and return at supersonic speeds makes them ideal for attacking fortified positions, logistics nodes, and troop concentrations.

ATACMS in Ukraine. Focusing on the current battlefield, British media reported that allowing the use of these missiles would allow Ukraine to attack important targets in Russia, possibly starting from the Kursk region. Such attacks could hinder Russian military operations by causing equipment and infrastructure to be moved farther from the front, stretching supply lines and reducing air interception capabilities.

However, experts also warn that the number of available missiles will be limited and, although useful, they will not completely change the course of the war. Plus: ATACMS could have a positive psychological effect in Ukraine, especially when used against symbolic targets like the Kerch Bridge.

International implications and possible response. Biden’s decision could also affect other Western allies, such as Britain and France, allowing long-range missiles like Storm Shadow to be used in attacks inside Russia.

Whatever the case, it seems reasonable to think that this measure could also increase tensions with Moscow. Vladimir Putin warned that the use of Western weapons against Russian territory would be seen as direct NATO intervention in the conflict and would change the nature of war. What does this mean? Only Putin knows, and although he has not implemented similar threats so far after supplying tanks and planes to Ukraine, the fear is there and it is possible that the “red line” has come.

And Trump. The last thing a war needs is gasoline, and soon the most unlikely actor arrives: Donald Trump. His return to the presidency creates uncertainty about the continuity of the country’s politics. Although Trump has promised to end the war quickly, he has not specified how to do it, which is no small feat. What we know at this point is that some of its allies have criticized allowing ATACMS, while others have suggested that more weapons deliveries could force Russia to negotiate once and for all.

As for Ukraine, there are fears that a change of leadership in the United States could limit or cancel the delivery of these missiles, which could significantly affect its military capacity in the near future, and much more, that a possible negotiation without ATACMS may be on the table. .

Image | Kelly Michaels

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