In September, Putin put forward the “outlines” of an important update: the “instructions” for the country’s red button. He then hinted that a more than interesting addition would be added to the conditions under which Russia would use its arsenal: If a “non-nuclear” nation or state received support from another country that possessed nuclear weapons, this would lead to “action.” Ukraine activated all the red lines of the game.

The first was doctrine. The truth is that Putin has used the nuclear threat as a tool of deterrence and pressure since the beginning of his invasion of Ukraine. The warning to the West is that there will be “unseen consequences” if they intervene in the conflict, and it is even known that tactical nuclear weapons have been deployed in Belarus. It is true that he has softened his stance from time to time, but Putin continues to conduct drills and drills with nuclear weapons and demonstrates his willingness to use them if he deems it necessary.

As we said a few days ago, the US approval of Ukraine’s use of ATACMS missiles changed everything. This week, Russia even formalized this doctrine after learning of Biden’s move, adding another layer of tension. A lot has happened since then; these include Ukraine’s use of not only American missiles but also UK missiles.

The West steps in. In a move that opened a new chapter in the war, Ukraine launched British-made long-range Storm Shadow missiles towards Russia’s Kursk region a few hours ago, a day after using US ATACMS missiles on Russian territory. This is no longer a fact. This is a significant change that responds to Moscow’s recent actions, including its deployment of North Korean troops to support Russian forces, a measure that has intensified the response of the United States and its allies.

Strategy change. Until recently, the US and the UK had imposed strict restrictions on the use of these advanced weapons on Russian territory to prevent a direct escalation of the conflict. However, circumstances changed when Biden approved the use of ATACMS missiles in long-range operations. Shortly afterwards, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer allowed Ukraine to use Storm Shadows beyond its borders. This shift represents a concerted effort by Western allies to level the playing field against Russian aggression.

Strategic advantages. With a range exceeding 240 km, Storm Shadow provides Ukrainian forces with the ability to strike key strategic targets in Russia, while ATACMS, with a range of 300 km, further expands operational capabilities.

Both systems allow Ukraine to strengthen its defensive and offensive position, especially in areas such as Kursk, which was captured by Ukraine in August and whose preservation is vital for future peace negotiations.

England and also France. Both countries have provided long-range missiles, the Storm Shadow we mentioned as well as the French SCALP, but they initially conditioned their use on Russian territory on US approval. After Washington gave the green light, European allies appear to have followed suit and reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening Ukraine’s military.

All eyes turned to Russia. That’s the big question right now. After the launch of Western missiles, it was the Kremlin’s turn to make a move. Trump’s upcoming presidency, which has vowed to limit support for Ukraine, appears to be key to prompt action by Western allies. It is also interpreted as the Biden administration trying to maximize the impact of its aid before possible changes in US foreign policy.

This new official nuclear doctrine can perhaps be understood through so-called tactical nuclear weapons. These weapons, designed to be used on the battlefield, are seen by Russia as a means of both deterrence and victory in conventional conflicts. The “escalation to de-escalate” strategy involves using them to turn the tide of a war that is at risk of being lost, or perhaps can also be translated as “escalation to win.”

Differences between tactical and strategic weapons. Tactical nuclear weapons tend to have a smaller range and destructive power than strategic ones. The latter are designed for intercontinental attacks, while the tactical ones can have a yield of from one kiloton to tens of kilotons; This is comparable to the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.

According to 2022 estimates, Russia has 4,477 nuclear warheads, approximately one-third of which are tactical. According to the U.S. Department of Defense, these forces, along with advanced delivery capabilities, could provide Russia with significant advantages over the United States and its allies.

What about…? Although Ukraine is not a member of NATO, any nuclear attack would put great pressure on the West to respond, perhaps with tactical nuclear weapons of its own. In any case, this is unlikely due to the risk that any nuclear escalation would lead to a global conflict. As Joe Biden himself warned in 2022, “There is no easy use of tactical nuclear weapons without resulting in Armageddon.”

However, the United States and its allies also have tactical nuclear weapons, such as B-61 bombs, deployed in Europe in countries such as Germany and Italy. In addition, some NATO members, such as Poland, have expressed interest in participating in nuclear weapons “sharing”, which could include everything from logistical support to hosting these weapons on their territory.

In short, it is a panorama that can remain rhetorical and increases tension and the risk of escalation in the event of a Russian attack. We must not forget the elephant in the room looming with the political transition in the United States; Therefore, actions such as the use of long-range “Western” missiles may be aimed at consolidating a stronger position for Ukraine in a potentially decisive situation. phase of the conflict rather than a truly devastating impact on Russian troops. Time will tell whether Russia understands it this way.

Picture | Kelly Michaels

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