This incident took place in Europe last Thursday morning. For several hours, the world took a step back, thinking that Putin had finally “pushed” the button. Ukraine’s air force claimed that Russia fired a long-range intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at Dnipro. In the end it was all a warning of “experimental missile”. If you want, I can also give a message to the West with an unprecedented weapon whose range is significant.

Russian warning. Hours after its launch, President Vladimir Putin announced that it was a new missile called “Oreshnik”, an experimental weapon equipped with a non-nuclear hypersonic warhead capable of reaching speeds of Mach 10. The military-industrial facility in Dnipro, Ukraine, was described as a test attack and a clear warning signal to the West.

Since then, analysts and experts have provided more information about what happened and the identity of the missile. The device used in the attack points to RS-26 Rubezh or a variant of it. Although it was officially discontinued in 2018, the Pentagon suggests that the design has been partially revived. In any case, the attack marks a historic and unprecedented use of the ballistic missile in warfare; but it is very important, and as we will see, it is an intermediate-range (IRBM) missile that uses a conventional version of a weapon originally developed to carry nuclear payloads.

Missile characteristics. Therefore, the Oreshnik (or modified RS-26) can be classified as an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), although some analysts consider it closer to an intercontinental missile (ICBM). The weapon can carry conventional or nuclear payloads and, according to experts, includes a MIRV (multiple and independent target reentry vehicle) system that can carry multiple warheads. With a maximum range of up to 5,500 kilometers, it goes far beyond the missiles used so far in the war in Ukraine.

Developed by the Moscow Thermal Technology Institute starting from 2008, the RS-26 was known to be a solid-fuel, mobile, medium-range ballistic missile (IRBM). Derived from the RS-24 Yars, it is approximately 12 meters long and has a diameter of close to 1.8 meters. Although it reached intercontinental ranges in tests, this was only possible with light payloads, limiting it to intermediate ranges with nuclear or conventional warheads.

Launch. The attack in Ukraine was carried out from Kapustin Yar, approximately 800 kilometers away from the target. Footage of the engagement shows the use of multiple independent re-entry warheads (MIRV); These warheads likely combine small explosives, decoys, or even non-lethal versions.

The attack in question, as we said, can serve as both an experimental test and a strategic deterrent against NATO. There is no doubt that the use of conventional IRBM signals Russia’s attempt to demonstrate its ability to evade Ukrainian air defenses while sending a message of strength to the West.

Significant kilometers. It has been reported from the Kremlin that the RS-26 may actually be an ICBM. In other words, it is a missile that can reach targets beyond 5,500 km. For this reason? The discrepancy may be due to a non-trivial issue. It is known to everyone that Russia is trying to stay within the limits of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), which was signed in 1987 and strictly bans the use of ICBMs and cruise missiles with a range of 500 to 5,500 km. Bottom line: Reduce tensions in Europe.

What happened? Faced with the possibility of breaking the INF, Russia officially announced in 2018 that it had stopped development of the RS-26. However, the cancellation of the agreement in 2019 probably led to new developments since then. Therefore, according to analysts, the Ukrainian military initially said that the missile in Dnipro could be an ICBM. As the hours passed, these “extra” kilometers and the consensus that we were facing an IRBM rather than an ICBM were key to not entering a new scenario in the conflict.

Strategic implications and the future of the RS-26. What seems very clear in this kind of resurgence of the RS-26 is a trend towards the development of non-nuclear strategic weapons that can send power signals without provoking a sudden nuclear escalation. The attack, as we said, also poses the risk of misinterpretation by Ukraine or NATO, considering that missiles of this class can carry nuclear warheads.

As more evidence is collected, it remains to be defined whether the Oreshnik is a direct revival of the RS-26 or a completely new development inspired by this system. Regardless, Russia has introduced a new level of sophistication to the war in Ukraine and global deterrence dynamics: strategic missiles to apply political and military pressure.

Image | US Indo-Pacific

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