Last week the New York Times reported on a related incident in Northern Europe. The news had clear ties to the war in Ukraine and the nuclear threat that any modern warfare conflict could pose. It seems that the Scandinavian countries are preparing for all possible “consequences” of the conflict, and they have done this by doubling the length of their guide for citizens in case of war. Germany joined this initiative with a map of shelters.

Expanding the shelter network. The German government is reportedly working on a proposal to increase the availability of civilian shelters and is considering the possible conversion of public and private facilities such as basements, underground car parks and metro stations. According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, a special mobile application will allow citizens to quickly find the nearest shelters in case of emergency.

Not only this. In parallel, people will be encouraged to transform basements and garages into protective shelters of their own homes. Although the so-called “shelter plan” was only revealed by the newspaper PictureThe Ministry did not want to openly link its development with the current geopolitical situation and did not set a deadline for its implementation.

Current capacity and expansion project. Germany, with a population of 84 million, currently has 579 shelters, most of which were built during the Second World War and the Cold War. These shelters have the capacity to accommodate approximately 480,000 people; this is significantly fewer than the approximately 2,000 shelters available in previous years.

The Ministry of Internal Affairs is leading the project, which is expected to take some time due to its complexity, together with the Department of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance. Meanwhile, civil protection organizations demanded that the construction of new residential areas that could accommodate up to 5,000 people in a short time be accelerated.

Worries. There is no doubt that the elephant in the room, which remains unnamed, is the invasion of Ukraine, which has intensified fears of possible attacks by Moscow on NATO members. According to German intelligence services, Russia may be in a position to launch an attack against the military alliance by 2030.

It was also reported that there was an increase in Russia’s espionage and sabotage activities on German territory. In October, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that the conflict in Ukraine was a “global” war and did not rule out possible attacks against Western countries.

Not only this. The urgency of these measures is also evident in recent comments from a senior NATO officer, who called on companies to adapt their production and distribution lines to face possible war scenarios and reduce vulnerability to pressure from countries such as Russia and China.

In parallel, the German government is implementing the “Operational Plan Germany”, which coordinates the federal and state governments, the army, security authorities and emergency services to guarantee national defense in the event of conflict. This plan apparently includes periodic meetings between representatives from the military and companies to prepare strategic sectors.

National planning and defense. The Guardian reported that key details of the plan were agreed at a conference of senior officials in June, and an expert group developed guidelines for this shelter initiative.

The renewal of shelter infrastructure and the promotion of indigenous shelters aim to strengthen Germany’s preparations for these possible conflict scenarios, but they also represent a significant shift in the priorities of Germany, which now seems to focus its attention more than ever on the protection of its population. and preparing for possible crises, strengthening the defense infrastructure in the face of an increasingly unstable international context. It’s an initiative that has followed the lead of other nations in recent months.

“Nordic guides” update. The Times said this last week. Sweden has started distributing a new edition of its crisis preparedness brochure. “In case of crisis or war“It reflects a tougher approach to preparing for war conflicts and emergencies.

This update comes six years after the previous version, at a time marked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO, and rising climate and cyber threats. Additionally, other Nordic countries such as Finland, Norway and Denmark have also renewed their guidance in recent months, underlining the need to be prepared for a more unpredictable global environment.

Unmentioned. The New York Times announced that although Russia was not explicitly mentioned in these guidelines, Swedish and Finnish officials acknowledged that the invasion of Ukraine and the deterioration of global security directly affected these measures. Sweden warned that “military threat levels are increasing”, while Finland, which shares a 1,330-kilometer border with Russia, noted the impact of the conflict and the recent sabotage in the Baltic Sea.

Norway warned of Russian espionage activities near their shared border and extended its advice for citizens to be prepared to last a week instead of three days as before.

New Scandinavian approaches. The updates include more comprehensive details about evacuating, seeking shelter, and care for people with special needs. Sweden, in particular, has doubled the length of its brochure since 2018 and included a strong statement on the first page: “We will never surrender if Sweden is attacked.”

This approach is part of a broader effort calling for a significant increase in military and civilian defense spending over the next five years. Plus: In addition to the military threat, the Nordic countries also highlight the impact of climate change, cyber attacks and disinformation as increasing risks. Norway, for example, found that it needed to prepare for a “permanent deterioration” in regional security.

In short, initiatives that reinforce a clear message: National security now depends on both military preparedness and the ability of citizens to confront protracted crises.

Image | Morten Jensen

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