China and Taiwan are a story of disagreements that have become increasingly intense lately. China knows, for example, that the United States purchases 92% of its cutting-edge semiconductors from Taiwan and that the region produces 90% of highly integrated semiconductors. Of course, there is more, such as China’s view of Taiwan as a rebel province that needs to be reunified, or the US’s public support for the island. Therefore, the drums of war are always there due to increased military exercises against the “neighbor”.

If China invades… If everything goes wrong and we end up in the worst-case scenario with China entering or trying to enter the island, the nation finds itself in trouble. China’s amphibious invasion of Taiwan would face two key requirements to succeed: landing on beaches and seizing ports.

Port problem. While beaches represent the first point of entry, ports are vital to ensuring logistical continuity as they provide the necessary infrastructure such as cranes and docks to unload large quantities of troops, armored vehicles and supplies.

Without these facilities, China would have to rely on slower and more vulnerable methods such as helicopters or transport over open beaches, leaving its forces in a race against time before facing Taiwan’s counter-attacks.

Strategic importance of ports. In this scenario, China is fully aware that Taiwan’s ports represent key defense points. Ports are critical to the success or failure of an invasion, as Taiwan’s coastal beaches and airports lack adequate infrastructure and are vulnerable to counter-attacks, according to analysis by the country’s military experts compiled by Ian Easton.

Additionally, Taiwan can turn its ports into literal fortresses with tactics such as laying mines, blocking channels with sunken ships, and even setting fire to the waters to deny enemy access.

“options” in Chinese. Under this assumed scenario, analysts say the People’s Liberation Army (EPL) has identified six options to meet this challenge, but all have significant drawbacks:

• Direct attack: High risk due to strong harbor defenses.
• “Squeeze” attacks from the sides of the harbor: A slow and complex process.
• Surprise attacks by low-altitude flying vehicles and helicopters: Limited by payload and vulnerable to Taiwanese air defenses.
• Special Operations: Light units that do not have sufficient firepower to maintain control.
• Landing on the beach: There is a high probability of being taken under control by Taiwan defense forces.
• Combination of bombing and amphibious assaults: Requires extremely precise coordination.

Plus: Chinese military writings suggest an offensive would combine initial bombardments with missiles and naval artillery, followed by commands to neutralize coastal defenses and a major landing with air and amphibious support. The aim would be to surround the port areas, isolate the defenders and prepare the ports for logistics operations.

Ports are under the spotlight. Ports most likely to be attacked include Taichung, Kaohsiung, Mailiao, Anping and Taipei, due to their capacity to handle armored vehicles and their proximity to beaches and river deltas that facilitate access. Taichung, in particular, stands out as the leading candidate due to its strategic location and developed commercial infrastructure.

Historical lessons. Military history highlights the difficulties of capturing fortified ports. For example, the unsuccessful Allied attack on the port of Dieppe in 1942 resulted in 5,000 deaths among 10,000 attackers; This highlights the dangers of direct conflict with coastal defenses.

In fact, even if China manages to capture a port, the possibility of sabotage and destruction by Taiwanese forces can render it unusable for months, as was the case with the ports of Brest and Cherbourg after their capture by the Allies in 1944.

Taiwan would defend itself. There is no doubt that it is the last leg that needs to be considered. Without including possible foreign aid into the equation, the island could strengthen its ports by deploying naval mines and physical barriers, anti-ship missiles and coastal artillery, and/or eliminating port infrastructure, in addition to having units trained in urban warfare. The Chinese military will reduce the influence of the Chinese Communist Party in its commercial activities.

Ultimately, if China decides to invade Taiwan, control of the ports will be the deciding factor. Without access to these facilities, the PLA’s logistics lines would quickly collapse and the entire operation would be brought under control. It’s a logistical and strategic challenge that makes the ports the epicenter of any future conflict between China, Taiwan, and other “actors” who might join the war.

Image | Aaron T.W.

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