The situation in Ukraine has remained virtually unchanged since the beginning of the Russian occupation. Since the beginning of the conflict, all parties have maintained more or less the same stance. The problem is that several years have passed since then, and now Ukraine remembers with even greater intensity his proposal from the first day to end the armed struggle. The problem is not on Russia, but on the side of the allies.

Join NATO. I won’t be the first or the last to do this. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy once again strongly suggested that the regions of Ukraine under Kiev control could be placed under NATO protection to stop the active phase of the war. But he stressed that any invitation to membership must recognize all of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders, including areas occupied by Russia.

This approach, although hypothetical, points to a model similar to that of West Germany, where membership was offered to a divided country during the Cold War.

Criteria based on this scenario. Zelenskyy made it clear that, as part of this plan, he would try to take back Ukraine’s occupied territories through diplomatic means. Although willing to consider international proposals, the president emphasized that he would not accept a plan that legitimizes Russia’s control over any part of Ukrainian territory.

In his view, without NATO protection, Ukraine would be vulnerable to new attacks from Russia, as it was after the 1994 Budapest Consensus, which guaranteed Ukraine’s sovereignty in exchange for giving up its nuclear arsenal.

Lukewarm response. The debate about this approach is not new and is being discussed in Western circles, but no proposals have been formalized. Meanwhile, Zelenskyy is trying to remain open to possible ideas from President-elect Donald Trump, who could make US military aid contingent on Ukraine’s willingness to negotiate with Moscow.

Trump’s preliminary plans to freeze front lines and delay Ukraine’s possible NATO membership contrast with Zelenskyy’s insistence on the need for urgent security guarantees. But there is another problem that is difficult to overcome.

Article 5. Zelenskyy himself suggested that Ukraine could join NATO under a special condition in which Article 5 of mutual defense would not automatically apply to Russian-occupied territories. Why? This lies at the heart of the problem, because the article reveals that an attack on one member of the alliance is considered an attack on all alliance members, which in this virtual scenario would mean directly involving all NATO countries in a conflict with Moscow.

Thus, Zelenskyy argues that the membership invitation should recognize the entire Ukrainian territory, including the occupied territories, as sovereign, but concedes that Article 5 should not be extended to these territories in case of war. A solution aimed at minimizing risks for NATO members who undoubtedly rejected the invitation to Ukraine for fear of being dragged into conflict.

But guns yes. For this reason, it seems very difficult for Ukraine to join NATO in the short term. Europe has many doubts, but not so many when it comes to the arms offer. In fact, NATO’s new Secretary General, Mark Rutte, called for priority to be given to sending weapons and military support to Ukraine before starting any peace negotiations with Russia.

According to Rutte, Ukraine needs to be in a strong position on the battlefield to ensure better conditions in a final agreement. Despite war fatigue in parts of Europe and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s promises of a quick ceasefire, the alliance is emphasizing the need to strengthen Ukraine’s defense capabilities.

The war, which has been going on for nearly three years, has become more intense in recent weeks. NATO’s stance reflects the need to maintain military pressure on Russia at a time when Ukraine is seeking support to guarantee its existence. But the lack of consensus among allies, challenges on the battlefield and political tensions in the West present an uncertain picture of the future of the war and Ukraine’s own security.

Image | Ministry of Defense of Ukraine

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