It seems amply established that Taiwan and China maintain a relationship of maximum tension. In September, Japan took a warship for a “walk” in the Bosphorus for the first time and all eyes were on Beijing. Later, documents appeared that revealed that the country’s military was studying the war in Ukraine and even contemplated the possibility of handling a possible conflict with the “neighbour”. The latest: Taiwan rebelled with an army off the coast.

Military operations. In the last 24 hours, Taiwan detected 53 military aircraft and 90 Chinese-flagged ships operating around the island in the waters extending from Japan’s southern islands to the South China Sea. In other words, the scene represents the largest display of aerial activity in a single day.

Not only this. China’s naval deployment of 90 ships represents the largest military action in the region in almost three decades, since exercises ahead of the 1996 presidential elections in Taiwan. These operations come from different Chinese commands, so to speak. It increases military pressure on the island and tensions between both regions. In the background is a Chinese exhibition intended to demonstrate the country’s ability to isolate the island and deter intervention by American allies such as Japan and the Philippines.

Reply. Although China has not made an official statement regarding the military maneuvers, Taiwanese officials suspect that this deployment is intended to surprise the island and may be related to Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s recent visit to the enclaves of Guam and Hawaii. Meetings with American politicians.

Taiwan’s raising of its maximum alert level in response to these actions is a move that adds to China’s previous military exercises aimed at intimidating the island and its main allies. Additionally, Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned these activities, calling them a threat to regional stability and accusing China of being “destabilizing” in the Indo-Pacific.

Geopolitical tensions. It’s not new. China considers Taiwan part of its territory and opposes official exchanges between the island and countries such as the United States. In fact, President Xi Jinping has called “reunification” with Taiwan “inevitable” and has never ruled out the use of force.

In response, the Chinese government continues to condemn US arms sales to Taiwan, imposing sanctions on defense sector companies and executives in retaliation for the recent approval of a $387 million military package. In fact, the Taiwanese president’s recent visit to Hawaii and Guam angered Beijing enough to accuse Taiwan of seeking American support for its independence. The Chinese government has vowed to respond harshly to any attempt at “provocation” and warned that the Taiwan issue will be “completely resolved.”

International reactions. In addition, the naval deployment coincides with a change of administration in the United States, where President-elect Donald Trump has expressed support for Taiwan, called for increased military spending, and emphasized Taiwan’s importance in the semiconductor industry. Meanwhile, the “island” is seeking to strengthen its diplomatic alliances in the Pacific by visiting countries that maintain relations with Taipei rather than Beijing.

In short, if we continue similar actions in recent months, what is happening now should be no more than a staging. Still, it seems clear that China has intensified its military activities, including two iterations of the Joint Sword-2024 exercises, especially since Lai took office in May. These maneuvers, as we reported, simulated blockades in Taiwan, attacks on key targets, and the closure of strategic ports, underscoring Beijing’s ability to encircle and intimidate the island.

In addition to highlighting Beijing’s aggressive stance on what it sees as a “core issue”, it is another sign that relations between both regions are far from understood.

Image | US Navy

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