Will there be magnetic storms?

Judging by current forecasts, earthlings should not fear significant instabilities in space weather in the near future. No emissions were observed towards our planet on December 13 and 15. There was an emission from sunspot number 3924 on December 14, but current reports indicate it was “faint.” Scientists have not been able to determine the specific type of this event but suggest it may be an LDE, he writes 24 Channels with a link to solen.info.

LDE flares, or Long-Extension Event Flares, are a special type of solar flare that lasts for a long time, usually several hours. They are provoked by the phenomenon of “reconnection” of magnetic fields on the Sun. Unlike other flashes that are short-lived and intense, LDE flashes take longer to release energy but can ultimately emit more light overall. Most often these are fully associated with the most powerful class X flares possible and end in a coronal mass ejection (CME).

Scientists haven’t been able to fully study this emission, so they don’t know if it has any definitive impact on Earth. But they point Possibility of disruption in Earth’s magnetosphere on December 17-18. As mentioned earlier, these should not be expected to be significant as the emission from flare is weak. According to SpaceWeather, the impact on the planet “will not be enough to cause a full-fledged geomagnetic storm.” But auroras “can fill the Arctic Circle as solar storm clouds pass through.”

What is the condition of the Sun?

The images show that the coronal holes that appeared across the entire surface of the Sun facing us last week have now almost completely disappeared. The CH1262 hole remains visible but is directed slightly to the side.

Coronal hole CH1262 / Photo solen.info

You don’t have to worry about CH1262 anymore.

As for sunspots, we currently have 5 groups of spots, three of which “look” to the side and only two look at us. The most active currently is AR3924, which produces the aforementioned emission. It consists of 18 separate objects, while the others have one to five separate points.

Sunspot map. The most active are marked in orange / Photo: SpaceWeather

If we summarize all the forecasts in general, we can conclude that there is a small possibility of disturbance on December 17 and 18, but no events should be expected on December 19 and 20.