One question marked part of the agenda in the United States elections: “The nuclear issue.” Trump will have to confront a complex landscape, with rising tensions and looming deadlines for major agreements. While Russia has suspended inspections of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), which limits deployed nuclear warheads to 1,550, the renewal of this agreement must take place in 2026 to prevent an arms race. Additionally, the international agreement with Iran expires in 2025, leaving open the possibility of the country developing nuclear weapons. There is China, which could double its nuclear arsenal by 2030, according to the Pentagon. The United States already has the recipe.

Project 25. Underneath that moniker lies an initiative developed by the Heritage Foundation and a group of former Trump administration officials to serve as a political road map. The plan proposes radical measures to reform various areas of the US government, including a clear focus on military and national security policies and, importantly, expansion of the country’s nuclear arsenal.

His proposals include, as we will see, the resumption of nuclear testing, the development of new weapons, and the modernization of the nuclear program in defiance of international agreements such as the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban (CTBT). His approach aims to position the country on a “war footing” against powers such as China and Russia, with a distinct emphasis on increasing military capabilities while cutting back on initiatives related to nuclear non-proliferation and other non-nuclear areas. Let’s see what else it means.

Now is the time to rearm. Everything suggests that after decades of dismantling nuclear weapons, the world is facing a new arms race. The United States, Russia and China are improving and expanding their arsenals. We recently talked about Russia testing advanced nuclear cruise missiles, China building silos for intercontinental ballistic missiles, and the United States, perhaps the furthest behind, planning to spend nearly $2 trillion to modernize its nuclear capabilities.

In this scenario, Project 2025, supported by conservatives and linked to the Trump administration since the elections, aims to position the US nuclear infrastructure on this so-called “war base”, increase production, diversify the arsenal and reintroduce nuclear tests. .

The project is inside. In this context, the program proposes measures such as accelerated production of plutonium nuclei, the development of new weapons and the return of the B83 nuclear bomb, which is 80 times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb, something that even the oldest know for sure. Resumption of nuclear tests suspended since 1992.

There is more. It also aims to cut funds allocated to non-nuclear research at laboratories such as Los Álamos and redirect them to weapons projects. Additionally, although some experts think the tests are unnecessary due to the advanced computer models available, Project 2025 insists on preparing to conduct tests or weapons trials within six months if necessary.

Economic reasons. There is no doubt that, unlike the Cold War where ideology was said to drive nuclear proliferation, the new arms race is driven by hard numbers, namely lucrative contracts with defense contractors. These companies significantly influenced the political agenda by financing studies legitimizing rearmament and putting pressure on Washington through lobbyists and political contributions.

Programs such as the Sentinel system, which include the construction of new missile silos, will not only increase the nuclear arsenal but also enrich a small group of companies.

What about geopolitics? It’s the other leg that needs to be taken care of. First of all, Project 2025 proposes rejecting the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), which Russia abandoned in 2023. This could trigger a series of nuclear tests that would intensify proliferation in other countries such as China and North Korea. race. Moreover, the New START agreement, the last nuclear control agreement between Russia and the USA, expires in 2026. According to experts, the Trump administration will not prioritize the renewal of the agreement, which will further worsen nuclear competition.

Last but not least, all of these possible nuclear tests and (hopefully unlikely) potential use of modern weapons would end in disaster. A 2022 study published in the journal Nature estimated that a nuclear conflict between the United States and Russia could kill 5 billion people, mainly due to its impact on food production. As if this were not enough, the nuclear waste revealed by new tests will also increase global pollution.

Criticisms and difficulties. A lot. Experts such as Joseph Cirincione and Sharon Squassoni have warned of the dangers of this approach, which returns us to the starting point of the “nuclear” beginning of the last century. They argue that arms accumulation does not increase global security, but rather leads to instability. Additionally, Project 2025 proposals face the challenge of renovating testing facilities in Nevada, a process that could take years.

The “wound” of the past. Most of the experts who raise the alarm remember the more or less recent past. Between 1946 and 1958, the United States conducted 67 nuclear tests in the Marshall Islands, including the devastating Operation Bravo test in 1954, the most powerful explosion in American history and a thousand times larger than the Hiroshima bomb.

These tests left a legacy of destruction known as the “Nuclear Scar.” Contaminated lands and oceans, displaced communities, and generations affected by radiation-related diseases. The devastating effects of these tests still linger in the environment and in the collective memory of the Pacific Islanders and American soldiers exposed to the explosions.

For all these reasons, Project 2025’s proposal to resume nuclear testing not only seems like a dangerous setback, but in some respects also betrays the progress made in disarmament and nuclear diplomacy.

Image | Kelly Michaels

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