Have you ever wondered what the chance is a piece of rocket fell on your head? New article published in Astronomy of nature made a prediction – and the chances are increasing due to the increase in the volume of space debris.

According to this publication, the probability that the unguided parts of the rocket will return to Earth, resulting in loss of life, is 10% over the next ten years. That is, if the practice of companies and countries that go beyond the planet does not change, one in ten may fall on someone’s head.

At the moment, most debris is easier to fall into uninhabited places or into the ocean, but over time, the risks increase. There are treaties that mention “things that collide with the Earth”, but today there is no legal framework that regulates space debris.

Another interesting point is that since most rockets are launched close to the equator, there is a higher chance that their parts will return. in the south of the world. The researchers say that the probability of falling missile bodies in Jakarta, Dhaka, Mexico City, Bogota and Lagos is three times higher than in New York, Beijing or Moscow.

One solution would be to invest in components that can be flown back to Earth, and researchers have already called for multinational agreements to make this a standard requirement. However, large organizations and countries are still resisting.

For this study, public reports on rocket launches and data on rocket bodies thrown into orbit over 30 years were used. According to the US Department of Defense, 27,000 pieces of space debris tracked today. NASA has already stated that the number is much higher in practice, but the average size of this “remnant” is too small to track.

Source: Forbes

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