Three years ago, El País published an article titled “Hurricanes ‘learn’ their way to Spain.” That year was the first of three tropical cyclones to approach the Peninsula in an unusual way. Until then, only one would come every three or four years. However, the arrival of climatic events from the Atlantic to the gates of Europe intensified. Although they weakened before reaching the Spanish coast, climate change is making this less likely.

In other words, tropical storms are more likely to reach Europe, but also more likely to maintain their intensity. And we already see it. A major hurricane could hit Spain next week.

The hurricane everyone’s talking about. As we commented on Xataka a few hours ago, different meteorological models point out Possible hurricane formation around the Azores in the next 168 hours. US National Hurricane Center increased rates yesterday Over 60% education. It is something that attracts attention due to the latitude it is formed at. But if we pay attention to the latest trend, it is not so much.

disposition. When we compare recent data with previous decades, there is evidence that something is up. Tropical storms have reached Europe more frequently since 2000 than in the 1980s and 1990s. “It was normal for a person to derail every three or four years and spawn in the North Atlantic,” said Juan Jesús González Alemán, a tropical systems expert. . However, in the last 15 years the frequency has become practically annual.

What do the studies say? They are not harbingers of a good future. A study published in Nature by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology concludes that, in fact, there is a long-term trend towards increasing numbers of hurricanes across the Atlantic. Previous research had suggested a possible increase in density due to climate change. But this research suggests that not only will storms become more destructive, they will also increase in frequency.

reviewing spain. In 2018, Leslie crashed into the ground with winds exceeding 100 kilometers per hour. Not the most severe Category 3 Ophelia reached 48 degrees and 140 km/h in 2017. It is the strongest, closest to Spain, and whose winds accelerated fires in Galicia and Asturias. Affecting parts of the Azores, Pablo (2019) and Vince (2005) also caused a sea storm in the Bay of Biscay and Galicia. According to research, those who will come from the second half of the century will have a speed of 120-150 kilometers per hour.

Is it a result of climate change? North Atlantic surface temperatures have risen by 1.5°C since 1870, and this is expected to make future tropical storms more intense. Various experts and physicists suggest that climate change may have played an important role in the increase in frequency and intensity.

Hurricanes get their energy by absorbing moisture and energy from warm ocean waters. Due to their heating, they reach a higher power. Additionally, there is evidence that rising sea levels are allowing storm surge from hurricanes to reach further inland and cause more flooding.

Image: NASA