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Is it possible to predict an earthquake in Ukraine and is there a risk to our nuclear power plants: an interview with a seismologist from the National Academy of Sciences

  • February 7, 2023
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The whole world is watching the results of the earthquakes in Turkey and Syria with fear. The natural disaster took the lives of several thousand people. Was it

Is it possible to predict an earthquake in Ukraine and is there a risk to our nuclear power plants: an interview with a seismologist from the National Academy of Sciences

The whole world is watching the results of the earthquakes in Turkey and Syria with fear. The natural disaster took the lives of several thousand people. Was it possible to avoid disaster in an exclusive interview and how should Ukraine and the world prepare for future earthquakes? 24 Channels said Alexander Kendzera – Deputy director of the Institute of Geophysics of the National Academy of Sciences.

On the second day, strong earthquakes shake the whole world. What was the reason for such a strong earthquake in Turkey? And then again?

Earthquakes in Turkey are the results of local seismic events. The deepest is estimated to be 19 kilometers.

This suggests that all these earthquakes are small (7 to 19 kilometers) and related to local tectonics. Not all distant earthquakes work here. Ukraine and Turkey actually belong to the same seismic belt. It was formed long ago and stretches from the Azores, includes the Crimea, the Carpathians, and continues as far as the Caucasus and the Hindu Kush.

The seismic belt moves on its own and consists of a large number of relatively small blocks. They rub against each other, they crawl on each other – they are always in motion. Where energy accumulates, waves are formed. When they reach the surface, we feel them as an earthquake.


Terrible consequences of the earthquake / Channel 24 Collage

Was it possible to predict the tragedy in Turkey and save people? Or at least do everything to reduce the number of victims?

Unfortunately, no. Contrary information is spread only to provoke the public and to interest journalists in so-called “research”.


The number of victims is increasing / Associated Press

It is known that 1,000 earthquakes of various magnitudes occur every day in the world. Is this normal for this type of seismic activity?

The number of earthquakes on our planet has been the same for decades.

But The number of seismic stations recording earthquakes is increasing every year.. The catalog is constantly expanding. People think this means increased seismic activity. But they are wrong. Only now have we learned to detect weaker earthquakes.

Due to the earthquake, geological shifts occurred in Turkey and the lithosphere plates moved 3 meters. Is it dangerous for the world? So what happened?

No, it is generally not dangerous to Earth. Moreover, in this context, 3 meters is not much at all.


The earthquake in Turkey partially destroyed the Gaziantep castle / dailysabah

How can such powerful earthquakes or a series of earthquakes affect the ecosystem in general, and how severe could the consequences be for nature, not counting the destruction and loss?

The losses caused by hunters are much higher than the losses caused by nature. And the ability of a desert to disappear in one place and reappear in another is a very long-term process.

How real is the threat to Ukraine?

Earthquakes occur all over the planet. They were, are and will be. Ukraine is less dangerous than Turkey. There may also be earthquakes.

The so-called Vrancha region is dangerous for the territory of Ukraine. Earthquakes occur at great depths, up to 180 kilometers. The echo from them reaches Ukraine and even further. Especially Moscow and St. Petersburg.

We have learned more or less how to calculate and take into account how they can affect the territory of Ukraine. It is worth noting that the Vrancha region did not have any effect on the earthquakes that occurred in Turkey and Syria. It has its own energy sources.

The force depends on which vibrations reach the surface.

If Ukraine is under the threat of an earthquake (and such a threat even exists now), will it be possible to predict a specific time?

No one can predict earthquakes in time. And he predicts how the world will oscillate in one or another region.

Let’s say tomorrow there will be an earthquake in Kiev. What’s next? Imagine yourself in Vitaliy Klitschko’s place. What to do: take out the city? And suddenly there will not be an earthquake? How to determine: will it be a strong earthquake or a thousand small earthquakes? Who will provide the guarantees?

What preventive measures can save the lives of Ukrainians?

It is necessary to study the level of seismic hazard in a particular area where a house or other important object is installed. It is necessary to calculate whether the stresses there will exceed the strength limits of the structure, etc.

Ukraine has state building regulations. It is necessary to build all the infrastructure (especially civil) in order to withstand an earthquake. The house will not collapse, so no one will die.

What should each of us do to reduce the risk to ourselves?

It is necessary to force building owners to determine the degree of seismic hazard. If the house is not seismically resistant, its inhabitants may die.

I am not sure that the high-rise buildings built in Odessa in recent years are sustainable. But there are investors, there are owners, there are local governments. Forcing to determine the seismic hazard level.

It is always possible to build or retrofit a house to withstand an earthquake.

Are there enough experts in Ukraine who can identify the threat? Do we need more experts?

I think it’s not enough. There are excellent specialists in Ukraine. At the same time, they will not be able to control all the houses located on the territory of Ukraine, or at least in the most dangerous parts of our country.

Is there a threat to Ukrainian nuclear power plants in the event of an earthquake?

The seismic hazard for the NPP has been studied in detail. The best Ukrainian and international experts were involved in it. We have received detailed information about how the lands will fluctuate. It has been determined that not a single NPP structure will collapse in the event of a maximum earthquake that should occur on the territory of our NPPs.

How an earthquake will affect technological processes is a more difficult question. It is also being worked on.

If the earthquake has already started, what should you do to save yourself?

There is a whole system of precautions to consider. Especially:

  • do not put heavy items in the closet or on any elevation;
  • pre-register the phones you can call;
  • don’t run on landings or take elevators – this is a high risk area.

Earthquake in Turkey and Syria: watch the video

Source: 24 Tv

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