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A significant number of experts have recently been very pessimistic in assessing the prospects of the Russian car market. However, our unpredictable country has once again baffled everyone.
What did Russian experts rightly say? The fact that passenger car sales will not only stop growing, but also decline.
Initially, a drop in turnover was expected at the beginning of July, after the introduction of the eleventh EU sanctions package. The next restrictions of the “partners” were devoted to identifying and blocking ways to circumvent the previously introduced restrictions against the Russian Federation. It did not work. Subsequently, the sharp increase in recycling collections since August was credited with triggering the market collapse. This step inevitably increased the price of the vehicle by tens or even hundreds of thousands of rubles. And not only imported ones, which were the main target of the authorities, but also completely domestic ones.
And finally, the biggest threat was the Central Bank’s increase in the discount rate to 15% at the end of October, which was guaranteed to hit dealers and buyers alike. By all laws, the increase in the cost of borrowed money and car loans should have stopped the flow of finance – clogged the circulatory system of the industry, so to speak. It seems that the conclusions are logical, even if the activities listed are incomprehensible.
Well, the West is here – it is beyond our control, and what can we learn from the fools there? But why did our dear domestic economists and financiers begin to destroy the already booming car market? As a result, the weighted average price of a new passenger car, according to the agency Avtostat, rose from 2.38 million at the end of last year to 3.13 million last August. Let everyone wonder if wages have increased at a similar rate.
But strangely enough, the panic was in vain, they shouted in vain: “Chief, all is lost, all is lost! The plaster is removed, the client leaves!” The same “Autostat” gave a cold shower to hotheads when it published the results of the Russian market for October.
It turned out that our compatriots bought 899.9 thousand cars and light commercial vehicles in ten months. For comparison: last year only 701 thousand cars found an owner. And that the car market will reach the milestone of one million cars sold in 2023 is no longer in question. However, this figure in itself does not contradict or support the fears of respected experts.
The monthly results are much more revealing. There were major fears that the increase in sales seen in June-July – before the increase in recycling collections – would later return with a sharp decline. The market grew 14% in June compared to May, and then another 16% in July. But then there was no failure. In September, sales slowed, by a ridiculous 0.6%, but didn’t stop. And in October they gained momentum again: there were 112,238 passenger cars, an increase of 1.7%.
And the most interesting thing is that after all the escapades of the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Central Bank, that is, in the first week of November, the record for the current year was reached, and therefore for the entire period since the collapse of the Russian car market – 28.6 thousand cars sold. Previously, the most productive week was the last week of July: 28.3 thousand cars.
The actions of the economic and financial authorities did not affect imports, which would be the main target of the attack. At the end of the first half of the year this remained at the level of more than 50,000 cars per month. And here you have it: September – 80.8 thousand, October – 86.8 thousand. At the same time, import substitution, also known as “gray deliveries”, remained at its usual level: 11% of all passenger cars sold in Russia.
It turns out that the responsible workers who planned all this were initially confident that no one would escape the submarine: people would keep coming to car dealerships and buying, buying, buying.
Don’t hide your money
On banks and corners,
Bring your money –
Otherwise there will be problems!
They, that is, those in power, found themselves in a double victory: they collected additional money from car owners and did not damage the market. But tasty, as Erofeevsky Decembrist joked, comes with food. Since the “magnificent enterprises” have not met any resistance – apart from the fact that the chairman of the ROAD, Alexei Podshchekoldin, was shocked by it – the temptation will be great to continue this practice.
What did Russian experts rightly say? The fact that passenger car sales will not only stop growing, but also decline.
Initially, a drop in turnover was expected at the beginning of July, after the introduction of the eleventh EU sanctions package. The next restrictions of the “partners” were aimed at identifying and blocking ways to circumvent the previously introduced restrictions against the Russian Federation. It did not work. Subsequently, the sharp increase in recycling collections since August was blamed for triggering the market collapse. This step inevitably increased the price of the vehicle by tens or even hundreds of thousands of rubles. And not only imported ones, which were the main target of the authorities, but also completely domestic ones.
And finally, the biggest threat was the Central Bank’s increase in the discount rate to 15% at the end of October, which was guaranteed to hit dealers and buyers alike. By all laws, the increase in the cost of borrowed money and car loans should have stopped the flow of finance – clogged the circulatory system of the industry, so to speak. It seems that the conclusions are logical, even if the activities listed are incomprehensible.
Well, the West is here – it is beyond our control, and what can we learn from the fools there? But why did our dear domestic economists and financiers begin to destroy the already booming car market? As a result, the weighted average price of a new passenger car, according to the agency Avtostat, rose from 2.38 million at the end of last year to 3.13 million last August. Let everyone wonder if wages have increased at a similar rate.
But strangely enough, the panic was in vain, they shouted in vain: “Chief, all is lost, all is lost! The plaster is removed, the client leaves!” The same “Autostat” gave a cold shower to hotheads when it published the results of the Russian market for October.
It turned out that our compatriots bought 899.9 thousand cars and light commercial vehicles in ten months. For comparison: last year only 701 thousand cars found an owner. And that the car market will reach the milestone of one million cars sold in 2023 is no longer in question. However, this figure in itself does not contradict or support the fears of respected experts.
The monthly results are much more revealing. There were major fears that the increase in sales seen in June-July – before the increase in recycling collections – would later return with a sharp decline. The market grew 14% in June compared to May, and then another 16% in July. But then there was no failure. In September, sales slowed, by a ridiculous 0.6%, but didn’t stop. And in October they gained momentum again: there were 112,238 passenger cars, an increase of 1.7%.
And the most interesting thing is that after all the escapades of the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Central Bank, that is, in the first week of November, the record for the current year was reached, and therefore for the entire period since the collapse of the Russian car market – 28.6 thousand cars sold. Previously, the most productive week was the last week of July: 28.3 thousand cars.
The actions of the economic and financial authorities did not affect imports, which would be the main target of the attack. At the end of the first half of the year this remained at the level of more than 50,000 cars per month. And here you have it: September – 80.8 thousand, October – 86.8 thousand. At the same time, import substitution, also known as “gray deliveries”, remained at its usual level: 11% of all passenger cars sold in Russia.
It turns out that the responsible workers who planned all this were initially confident that no one would escape the submarine: people would keep coming to car dealerships and buying, buying, buying.
Don’t hide your money
On banks and corners,
Bring your money –
Otherwise there will be problems!
They, that is, those in power, found themselves in a double victory: they collected additional money from car owners and did not damage the market. But tasty, as Erofeevsky Decembrist joked, comes with food. Since the “magnificent enterprises” have not met any resistance – apart from the fact that the chairman of the ROAD, Alexei Podshchekoldin, was shocked by it – the temptation will be great to continue this practice.
Source: Avto Vzglyad
Donald Salinas is an experienced automobile journalist and writer for Div Bracket. He brings his readers the latest news and developments from the world of automobiles, offering a unique and knowledgeable perspective on the latest trends and innovations in the automotive industry.
