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A rumor spread throughout Russia that new car prices had reluctantly fallen in November. Well, rumors are not spread by flies, so the portal “AvtoVzglyad” decided to see
Upon further investigation, it turned out that all the noise was coming from a statement by one independent automotive expert (I wish I knew what profession this was) on the 360 channel. Chinese cars on the Russian market, they say, began to become cheaper due to the oversaturation of the market and the emergence of an increasing number of models. “It’s just that their number is growing steadily, new brands are being added. In the current circumstances, even a static price position should be considered a price reduction.”
Let us leave aside the strange remark about the fact that to maintain the price is to lower it; it is essentially mysterious and false, no matter what conditions are mentioned. How’s Mark Twain? “This is great for anyone who writes, whether you are a connoisseur of forests or a connoisseur of the seas.”
Even more intriguing, however, is the claim that the process of rewriting price tags in a direction that is pleasing to the buyer is caused by market oversaturation. “Opamentaise, sir!” What kind of abundance are we talking about? After all, the minimum level of annual sales, which gives reason to believe that the Russian automotive industry is beginning to crawl out of its deep ass, is one and a half million cars. With the most optimistic forecast for 2023, just over a million of them will be registered across Russia. This is even too little for saturation. So “I reject the old porcini with indignation.”
Do the obvious distortions in the expert’s statement mean that there is no real basis for the information about price reductions for some models? Certainly not like that. After all, a similar prediction was also given by the head of the analytical agency Autostat, whose words are quoted by autonews.ru. He thinks that car sales will even fall by 10-15% in November 2023. The reason for this was a decline in interest in purchasing cars against the backdrop of high prices, higher recycling costs and car loans.
This argument inspires much more confidence, especially considering that it is based on a solid database of Russian sales that Autostat has been building for a long time. But even the forecast of a specialized agency does not contain any sensation, since the sale of new cars, like any other trade, is subject to fluctuations caused by various reasons, including seasonal demand.
If we look at the statistics, November often became a bad month. So in 2021, when the world was still in relative peace, October sales in Russia amounted to 126,204 cars, according to the Association of European Businesses. And November brought, albeit a small decline, to 125,466 units. Not very important, since the timing is bad: between the pandemic and the sanctions?
No problem, we can remember the most successful of the successful 2012. October – 253,732 cars, November – 240,322 units. Or about the very good year 2011, in which 240,928 and 239,392 cars were sold respectively.
And no one rubbed their hands at this, nor broke any spears or bows. Apparently the whole point is simply a need to bring at least some sensation to the surface. For the most part, people do not remember these subtleties – do they need it? And again they will be sincerely surprised (angry, scared, angry – choose according to your wishes).
We still have to wait a very long time for a real market recovery. Therefore, price fluctuations in either direction must be treated philosophically. By the way, to the reasons mentioned by Autostat for the “unexpected” drop in car prices, you can add the strengthening of the ruble exchange rate. And no one can guarantee that after some time the ruble will collapse again due to shady manipulations of the financial and economic bloc of the Russian government. However, we can certainly vouch for something else: car prices will take a bit of a break and then creep stubbornly back up. Don’t go to grandma’s.
Upon further investigation, it turned out that all the noise was coming from a statement by one independent automotive expert (I wish I knew what profession this was) on the 360 channel. Chinese cars on the Russian market, they say, began to become cheaper due to the oversaturation of the market and the emergence of an increasing number of models. “It’s just that their number is growing steadily, new brands are being added. In the current circumstances, even a static price position should be considered a price reduction.”
Let us leave aside the strange remark about the fact that to maintain the price is to lower it; it is essentially mysterious and false, no matter what conditions are mentioned. How’s Mark Twain? “This is great for anyone who writes, whether you are a connoisseur of forests or a connoisseur of the seas.”
Even more intriguing, however, is the claim that the process of rewriting price tags in a direction that is pleasing to the buyer is caused by market oversaturation. “Opamentaise, sir!” What kind of abundance are we talking about? After all, the minimum level of annual sales, which gives reason to believe that the Russian automotive industry is beginning to crawl out of its deep ass, is one and a half million cars. With the most optimistic forecast for 2023, just over a million of them will be registered across Russia. This is even too little for saturation. So “I reject the old porcini with indignation.”
Do the obvious distortions in the expert’s statement mean that there is no real basis for the information about price reductions for some models? Certainly not like that. After all, a similar prediction was also given by the head of the analytical agency Autostat, whose words are quoted by autonews.ru. He thinks that car sales will even fall by 10-15% in November 2023. The reason for this was a decline in interest in purchasing cars against the backdrop of high prices, higher recycling costs and car loans.
This argument inspires much more confidence, especially considering that it is based on a solid database of Russian sales that Autostat has been building for a long time. But even the forecast of a specialized agency does not contain any sensation, since the sale of new cars, like any other trade, is subject to fluctuations caused by various reasons, including seasonal demand.
If we look at the statistics, November often became a bad month. So in 2021, when the world was still in relative peace, October sales in Russia amounted to 126,204 cars, according to the Association of European Businesses. And November brought, albeit a small decline, to 125,466 units. Not very important, since the timing is bad: between the pandemic and the sanctions?
No problem, we can remember the most successful of the successful 2012. October – 253,732 cars, November – 240,322 units. Or about the very good year 2011, in which 240,928 and 239,392 cars were sold respectively.
And no one rubbed their hands at this, nor broke any spears or bows. Apparently the whole point is simply a need to bring at least some sensation to the surface. For the most part, people do not remember these subtleties – do they need it? And again they will be sincerely surprised (angry, scared, angry – choose according to your taste).
We still have to wait a very long time for a real market recovery. Therefore, price fluctuations in either direction must be treated philosophically. By the way, to the reasons given by Autostat for the “unexpected” drop in car prices you can add the strengthening of the ruble exchange rate. And no one can guarantee that after some time the ruble will collapse again due to shady manipulations of the financial and economic bloc of the Russian government. However, we can certainly vouch for something else: car prices will take a bit of a break and then creep stubbornly back up. Don’t go to grandma’s.
Source: Avto Vzglyad
Donald Salinas is an experienced automobile journalist and writer for Div Bracket. He brings his readers the latest news and developments from the world of automobiles, offering a unique and knowledgeable perspective on the latest trends and innovations in the automotive industry.
