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The past year has brought many problems to the Russian automotive industry, the vast majority of which have not been resolved. However, he did one important thing: he
Recently, the American cable TV channel CNBC, specialized in business issues, pleased us with the information that sales of new cars in the United States will increase by 1-4% next year and will amount to about 15.6-16.1 million units. And this despite the fact that they amounted to less than 15 million in 2022, the lowest level in at least the past ten years. The growth is barely noticeable, but still growth – and given the sheer volume and high saturation of the US market, even this could have a positive impact both on the country’s economy as a whole and on consumers in particular.
Despite all the incomparability of the automotive industry in Russia and the United States, our analysts’ forecasts regarding the development of the domestic market are also quite positive. Of course, not in the sense that they predict an explosive growth in passenger car sales – no, they simply hope that large-scale disasters will not occur and that the car industry will continue to grow and gradually approach the minimum level sufficient for normal Operate. of the industry.
I would like to remind you that to reach this level, the market will have to grow one and a half times next year compared to the results of 2023, the results of which are not yet precisely known. However, most cautious analysts are inclined to believe that within twelve months about 1,050,000 passenger cars will be sold in Russia. This is purely theoretically possible: the automotive industry has managed to demonstrate an increase in turnover of almost 70% this year. In practice, however, this is completely unrealistic.
The biggest problem is that we currently do not have that extremely low base that would allow us to demonstrate phenomenal results again. Every step towards more turnover will now be taken with great difficulty. Moreover, there are no real growth engines in our inventory. There is only one obstacle to achieving a bright future.
They have already been mentioned a thousand times, so there is no point in going into a detailed decoding, and I will limit myself to one enumeration. The development of the market will be hampered by the high policy interest rate of the Central Bank, a higher recycling rate, unaffordable prices for cars, a decline in the well-being of the population, the lack of domestic technologies for the production of auto parts. and cars in general, and the predominance of imports over local assembly. As they say, wherever you kiss, there’s an ass everywhere. In fact, this is why over the past three months there has been not only a dramatic decline in growth rates, but even a decline in sales.
We can say with confidence: the obstacles that our financial and economic authorities have placed on the road to prosperity will not be removed in the near future, and the policy rate has a chance to rise, which will ultimately put an end to the car loan instrument . It is also extremely naive of us to expect a sharp increase in wages (and, as a result, in purchasing power). The technological and production development of the industry certainly does not bear fruit in one year. Moreover, this requires serious efforts on the part of the state, which so far looks at the problem very indifferently.
We can only hope that the weighted average price for cars will drop from the current three million to at least last year’s 2.4 million.
Sciences nourish young people,
Joy is served to the old,
In a happy life they adorn,
In case of an accident, they will take care of it.
This is absolutely not our case. Neither automakers nor dealers will become so infuriated that they voluntarily lower prices on their products. And our anti-monopoly services are only able to conduct an investigation into the reasonableness of egg prices, and only after a big kick from above. The market is divided between Chinese and domestic companies, which are very comfortable, without much tension and make good money.
They will not allow anyone else into the “field of wonders”, so you can safely give up dreams about the arrival of some cheap Indian or Iranian cars. Yes, our driver does not need a craft on a basis with thirty years of experience, even if he is European at the core. These countries’ automotive industries, among other things, barely meet domestic demand and simply do not have the capacity to export.
What can really help the market develop next year? Increase in production by AVTOVAZ, and in the segment up to 1.5 million rubles, in which the Volga plant has recently started hammering the bolt with joy.
And the second chance lies in the help of the Chinese, if they suddenly decide to import budget models here, and not their “Chinese premium” of 3-4 million rubles. But “dream, dream, where is your sweetness?” We must agree with the assessment of most experts, who predict market growth in 2024 by up to 10%, which will in no way help the domestic motorist, who suffers from the miserable range and unaffordable prices.
Recently, the American cable TV channel CNBC, specialized in business issues, pleased us with the information that sales of new cars in the United States will increase by 1-4% next year and will amount to about 15.6-16.1 million units. And this despite the fact that they amounted to less than 15 million in 2022, the lowest level in at least the past ten years. The growth is barely noticeable, but still growth – and given the sheer volume and high saturation of the US market, even this could have a positive impact both on the country’s economy as a whole and on consumers in particular.
Despite all the incomparability of the automotive industry in Russia and the United States, our analysts’ forecasts regarding the development of the domestic market are also quite positive. Of course, not in the sense that they predict an explosive growth in passenger car sales – no, they simply hope that large-scale disasters will not occur and that the car industry will continue to grow and gradually approach the minimum level sufficient for normal Operate. of the industry.
I would like to remind you that to reach this level, the market will have to grow one and a half times next year compared to the results of 2023, the results of which are not yet precisely known. However, most cautious analysts are inclined to believe that within twelve months about 1,050,000 passenger cars will be sold in Russia. This is purely theoretically possible: the automotive industry has managed to demonstrate an increase in turnover of almost 70% this year. In practice, however, this is completely unrealistic.
The biggest problem is that we currently do not have that extremely low base that would allow us to demonstrate phenomenal results again. Every step towards more turnover will now be taken with great difficulty. Moreover, there are no real growth engines in our inventory. There is only one obstacle to achieving a bright future.
They have already been mentioned a thousand times, so there is no point in going into a detailed decoding, and I will limit myself to one enumeration. The development of the market will be hampered by the high policy interest rate of the Central Bank, a higher recycling rate, unaffordable prices for cars, a decline in the well-being of the population, the lack of domestic technologies for the production of auto parts. and cars in general, and the predominance of imports over local assembly. As they say, wherever you kiss, there’s an ass everywhere. In fact, this is why over the past three months there has been not only a dramatic decline in growth rates, but even a decline in sales.
We can say with confidence: the obstacles that our financial and economic authorities have placed on the road to prosperity will not be removed in the near future, and the policy rate has a chance to rise, which will ultimately put an end to the car loan instrument . It is also extremely naive of us to expect a sharp increase in wages (and, as a result, in purchasing power). The technological and production development of the industry certainly does not bear fruit in one year. Moreover, this requires serious efforts on the part of the state, which so far looks at the problem very indifferently.
We can only hope that the weighted average price for cars will drop from the current three million to at least last year’s 2.4 million.
Sciences nourish young people,
Joy is served to the old,
In a happy life they adorn,
In case of an accident, they will take care of it.
This is absolutely not our case. Neither automakers nor dealers will become so infuriated that they voluntarily lower prices on their products. And our anti-monopoly services are only able to conduct an investigation into the reasonableness of egg prices, and only after a big kick from above. The market is divided between Chinese and domestic companies, which are very comfortable, without much tension and make good money.
They will not allow anyone else into the “field of wonders”, so you can safely give up dreams about the arrival of some cheap Indian or Iranian cars. Yes, our driver does not need a craft on a basis with thirty years of experience, even if he is European at the core. These countries’ automotive industries, among other things, barely meet domestic demand and simply do not have the capacity to export.
What can really help the market develop next year? Increase in production by AVTOVAZ, and in the segment up to 1.5 million rubles, in which the Volga plant has recently started hammering the bolt with joy.
And the second chance lies in the help of the Chinese, if they suddenly decide to import budget models here, and not their “Chinese premium” of 3-4 million rubles. But “dream, dream, where is your sweetness?” We must agree with the assessment of most experts, who predict market growth in 2024 by up to 10%, which will in no way help the domestic motorist, who suffers from the miserable range and unaffordable prices.
Source: Avto Vzglyad
Donald Salinas is an experienced automobile journalist and writer for Div Bracket. He brings his readers the latest news and developments from the world of automobiles, offering a unique and knowledgeable perspective on the latest trends and innovations in the automotive industry.
