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Analysts predict magical growth in Russian car sales

  • July 12, 2022
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Incorrigible optimists among the employees of the former Russian branch of the consultancy PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), renamed an organization called Trust Technologies, took advantage of some secret knowledge and

Incorrigible optimists among the employees of the former Russian branch of the consultancy PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), renamed an organization called Trust Technologies, took advantage of some secret knowledge and gave an unrealistically optimistic forecast for the further development of the Russian car market. Portal “AvtoVzglyad” was acquainted with the fruits of labor of “trusted analysts” with amazement.

According to the forecast, with a completely serious look distributed by Technologies of Trust, represented by the director of the company’s automotive practice, Victoria Sinichkina, sales of new passenger cars of Russian brands will reach 227,000 units by 2022. The assembly of cars of foreign brands in Russia will reach the level of 688,000 units, and imports will approach 175,000 by the end of the year. Thus, the total volume of the Russian market in 2022 should reach 1,090,000 cars (excluding light commercial vehicles, LCV). That is about one and a half times less than in 2021, when 1,514,000 cars were sold in Russia.

“With increased sanctions pressure, a deteriorating macroeconomic situation, a mass exodus of players, a reduction in imports and a deterioration in the logistics supply of components, sales are expected to fall at the level of 50% or more compared to with last year,” analysts write in their report.

That is, in their opinion, in the worst case, the domestic market for the current year will show a result of about 760,000 cars. This is all wonderful, but one thing is not clear: where are the ‘technologists’ going to get all those machines they fantasize about? The point is that only 370,200 cars and light commercial vehicles were sold in Russia in the past half of the year. In addition, it should be understood that in just two months, in January-February 2022, before the start of the well-known events and all this sanctions history, almost 200,000 passenger cars were sold on our market. In the next four months – 170,000 and in May-June – only about 60,000.

Simple calculations show that if things continue like this – none of the automakers present in Russia leave us, no new sanctions are introduced and there is no total apocalypse in the economy and geopolitics – by the end of this year the Russian car market will get 200,000 passenger cars elsewhere. That is, for the year, sales put a total of about 570,000 cars. This, we emphasize, is at its best! I don’t want to talk about the worst. What kind of 760,000 are they telling us here? Or, more than that, about 1 million cars?

With this in mind, it becomes completely incomprehensible why it was “trusted technologists” who decided that the Russian factories of foreign car groups – “Koreans” with “Japanese” and “Germans” – would suddenly launch their assembly lines as if nothing had happened. lines? In fact, there is absolutely nothing to indicate that Asians are going to change their current policy in Russia: “we hid, we sit still, we don’t stick out and wait for what and when everything will end.” And now there are persistent rumors about VW, as if the concern is secretly seriously preparing to “disappear” from our country. And completely. The import of foreign cars to Russia is stagnating due to bureaucratic obstacles. Moreover, it is not clear where in the world we can physically get so many cars to meet the domestic Russian demand. It is already clear that it will still be profitable to import only premium cars under the parallel import scheme. Therefore, this scheme will certainly not become a mass phenomenon in the near future.

Against this background, AVTOVAZ barely scrapes together a handful of components from suppliers to produce just a few thousand “simplified” LADA Grantas per month. UAZ recently announced the start of production of the “Simplified Patriot”. Admittedly, no one has really seen it yet … Among the car companies operating on our territory, there is also the Haval factory. But its capacity (along with the current space prices for “Chinese” in Russia) is hardly enough to even give the impression of filling the domestic car market.

And under such conditions, Madame “technologist” Sinichkina promises one million cars that will be sold in Russia by 2022. You can of course laugh at the qualifications of such “analysts”. If it wasn’t so sad…

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photo globallookpress.com

According to the forecast, with a completely serious look distributed by Technologies of Trust, represented by the director of the company’s automotive practice, Victoria Sinichkina, sales of new passenger cars of Russian brands will reach 227,000 units by 2022. The assembly of cars of foreign brands in Russia will reach the level of 688,000 units, and imports will approach 175,000 by the end of the year. Thus, the total volume of the Russian market in 2022 should reach 1,090,000 cars (excluding light commercial vehicles, LCV). That is about one and a half times less than in 2021, when 1,514,000 cars were sold in Russia.

“With increased sanctions pressure, a deteriorating macroeconomic situation, a mass exodus of players, a reduction in imports and a deterioration in the logistics supply of components, sales are expected to fall at the level of 50% or more compared to with last year,” analysts write in their report.

That is, in their opinion, in the worst case, the domestic market for the current year will show a result of about 760,000 cars. This is all wonderful, but one thing is not clear: where are the ‘technologists’ going to get all those machines they fantasize about? The point is that only 370,200 cars and light commercial vehicles were sold in Russia in the past half of the year. In addition, it should be understood that in just two months, in January-February 2022, before the start of the well-known events and all this sanctions history, almost 200,000 passenger cars were sold on our market. In the next four months – 170,000. And in May-June – only about 60,000.

Simple calculations show that if things continue like this – none of the automakers present in Russia leave us, no new sanctions are introduced and there is no total apocalypse in the economy and geopolitics – by the end of this year the Russian car market will get 200,000 passenger cars elsewhere. That is, for the year, sales put a total of about 570,000 cars. This, we emphasize, is at its best! I don’t want to talk about the worst. What kind of 760,000 are they telling us here? Or, more than that, about 1 million cars?

With this in mind, it becomes completely incomprehensible why it was “trusted technologists” who decided that the Russian factories of foreign car groups – “Koreans” with “Japanese” and “Germans” – would suddenly launch their assembly lines as if nothing had happened. lines? In fact, there is absolutely nothing to indicate that Asians are going to change their current policy in Russia: “we hid, we sit still, we don’t stick out and wait for what and when everything will end.” And now persistent rumors are circulating about VW, as if the concern is secretly seriously preparing to “disappear” from our country. And completely. Imports of foreign cars to Russia are stagnating due to bureaucratic obstacles. Moreover, it is not clear where in the world we can physically get so many cars to meet the domestic Russian demand. It is already clear that it will still be profitable to import only premium cars under the parallel import scheme. Therefore, this scheme will certainly not become a mass phenomenon in the near future.

Against this background, AVTOVAZ barely scrapes together a handful of components from suppliers to produce just a few thousand “simplified” LADA Grantas per month. UAZ recently announced the start of production of the “Simplified Patriot”. Admittedly, no one has really seen it yet … Among the car companies operating on our territory, there is also the Haval factory. But its capacity (along with the current space prices for “Chinese” in Russia) is hardly enough to even give the impression of filling the domestic car market.

And under such conditions, Madame “technologist” Sinichkina promises one million cars that will be sold in Russia by 2022. You can of course laugh at the qualifications of such “analysts”. If it wasn’t so sad…

Source: Avto Vzglyad

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