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What awaits the Russian car market in 2023

The fact that we have to admit is that we do not have to wait for a revival in the Russian car market. Neither parallel imports, nor the invasion of Chinese comrades, nor the efforts of domestic auto giants will help us. How much worse will it be in the automotive industry in early 2023, the AvtoVzglyad portal found.

You don’t have to be an expert to understand that sanctions, shortages and a total price increase, at the same time as the precarious economic situation in the country and the world, do not promise us a bright future. Let’s live our lives with what’s left. And there was nothing left at all. Parallel imports seem to revive the car market somewhat, but the phenomenon turned out to be temporary. To be exact, very briefly.

Soon, the demand for the supply of cars on the left began to drain. The procedure for importing cars from Kazakhstan has become more complicated, where almost everything has already been plucked from dealers. Belarus has banned the export of cars, and options from the Emirates are suitable only for the elite, because we are talking exclusively about expensive products that have become an alternative to the scarce “luxury” in the country.

The same Armenia and Georgia no longer help to save money when buying an “iron horse” – and dealers have occupied these markets with power. Yes, Japan still “drives” the gray scheme with its “right-hand drive”, and South Korea, which is less and less favored due to component problems and price hikes again.

What, shall we ride the “Chinese”? It doesn’t matter how! Yes, they are slowly but surely biting new market share, but people aren’t queuing up en masse for the ‘heavenly’ auto industry. Why? The answer is obvious: a sharp price increase. Judge for yourself: if a year earlier you could buy a top crossover from China for a few million rubles, now only the basic version of a lower class model is available for this money! An adequate “Chinese” can only be taken for 3,000,000 deeply rooted Russian notes, and the “juice” itself will fish out all four! Our compatriots are clearly not ready for this.

And those who used to pay such amounts for a real premium will certainly not move to China and “kill” their first class to the last. Although, admittedly, the “secondary” is already being bombarded with useless German and Japanese foreign cars. How to serve them is a big question. By the way, in Chinese cars, this dilemma was already relevant before the start of well-known events.

It seems that we are going to switch to “our brands” en masse? And what: the same AVTOVAZ has restarted a number of models that have lost ABS and ESP – we are no strangers! They are affordable and there will never be a problem with spare parts. Like, in fact, with TO. The inhabitants of Volga, if they succeed, will reach the old production level in 2023, which will allow the market to breathe a little and dust itself off. In addition, somehow the remnants of foreign models built by Russian factories will be sold, albeit inactive for a long time, and in some cases completely shut down.

According to experts from Russian Automotive Market Research, we will have sold just under 520,000 new cars by the end of 2022, which is 66% less than a year earlier. However, if the Chinese and Koreans don’t even reach April’s sales figures, and the economy continues to deteriorate at a rapid pace with the Russians’ vote, the market will be down 70%. In the worst-case scenario, outbreaks of the coronavirus, the semiconductor crisis and additional sanctions will lead to a sharp decline in production and sales, which, combined with critical macroeconomic indicators, will continue to haunt the market with an 80% failure.

Incidentally, experts at the National Industrial Information Agency (NAPI), with a pessimistic outcome of the events, are inclined to believe that sales will be at the level of just under 400,000 units by the end of 2022 (down about 74%). ). Boosting state programs could partly save the dive market. And by the way, state aid has already helped fuel interest in cheap cars. The same VAZ hit in the face of LADA Granta spreads over preferential car loans, bringing the model to 70% of sales. You can buy it with a 20% discount, not counting individual dealer bonuses. On the other hand, a car that not so long ago cost 400,000 rubles is psychologically difficult, and more often physically impossible to buy for 800,000!

Yes, this is the new reality that we have to get used to. But in the end, unfortunately, the money in the pockets of the population did not increase with its inception. Rather the contrary. However, this does not prevent car prices from rising further, and rising just as quickly as inflation. What can not be said about the car market, or about the standard of living in general.

Photo: AvtoVzglyad
Photo: AvtoVzglyad

You don’t have to be an expert to understand that sanctions, shortages and a total price increase, at the same time as the precarious economic situation in the country and the world, do not promise us a bright future. Let’s live our lives with what’s left. And there was nothing left at all. Parallel imports seem to revive the car market somewhat, but the phenomenon turned out to be temporary. To be exact, very briefly.

Soon, the demand for the supply of cars on the left began to drain. The procedure for importing cars from Kazakhstan has become more complicated, where almost everything has already been plucked from dealers. Belarus has banned the export of cars, and options from the Emirates are suitable only for the elite, because we are talking exclusively about expensive products that have become an alternative to the scarce “luxury” in the country.

The same Armenia and Georgia no longer help to save money when buying an “iron horse” – and dealers have occupied these markets with power. Yes, Japan still “drives” the gray scheme with its “right-hand drive”, and South Korea, which is less and less favored due to component problems and price hikes again.

What, shall we ride the “Chinese”? It doesn’t matter how! Yes, they are slowly but surely biting new market share, but people aren’t queuing up en masse for the ‘heavenly’ auto industry. Why? The answer is obvious: a sharp price increase. Judge for yourself: if a year earlier you could buy a top crossover from China for a few million rubles, now only the basic version of a lower class model is available for this money! An adequate “Chinese” can only be taken for 3,000,000 deeply rooted Russian notes, and the “juice” itself will fish out all four! Our compatriots are clearly not ready for this.

And those who used to pay such amounts for a real premium will certainly not move to China and “kill” their first class to the last. Although, it must be admitted, the “secondary” is already bombarded with useless German and Japanese foreign cars. How to serve them is a big question. By the way, in Chinese cars, this dilemma was already relevant before the start of well-known events.

It seems that we are going to switch to “our brands” en masse? And what: the same AVTOVAZ has restarted a number of models that have lost ABS and ESP – we are no strangers! They are affordable and there will never be a problem with spare parts. Like, in fact, with TO. The inhabitants of Volga, if they succeed, will reach the old production level in 2023, which will allow the market to breathe a little and dust itself off. In addition, somehow the remnants of foreign models built by Russian factories will be sold, albeit inactive for a long time, and in some cases completely shut down.

According to experts from Russian Automotive Market Research, we will have sold just under 520,000 new cars by the end of 2022, which is 66% less than a year earlier. However, if the Chinese and Koreans don’t even reach April’s sales figures, and the economy continues to deteriorate at a rapid pace with the Russians’ vote, the market will be down 70%. In the worst-case scenario, outbreaks of the coronavirus, the semiconductor crisis and additional sanctions will lead to a sharp decline in production and sales, which, combined with critical macroeconomic indicators, will continue to haunt the market with an 80% failure.

Incidentally, experts at the National Industrial Information Agency (NAPI), with a pessimistic outcome of the events, are inclined to believe that sales will be at the level of just under 400,000 units by the end of 2022 (down about 74%). ). Boosting state programs could partly save the dive market. And by the way, state aid has already helped fuel interest in cheap cars. The same VAZ hit in the face of LADA Granta spreads over preferential car loans, bringing the model to 70% of sales. You can buy it with a 20% discount, not counting individual dealer bonuses. On the other hand, a car that not so long ago cost 400,000 rubles is psychologically difficult, and more often physically impossible to buy for 800,000!

Yes, this is the new reality that we have to get used to. But in the end, the money in the pockets of the population unfortunately did not increase with its inception. Rather the contrary. However, this does not prevent car prices from rising further, and rising just as quickly as inflation. What can not be said about the car market, or about the standard of living in general.

Source: Avto Vzglyad

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