Going nowhere: 2023 doesn’t bode well for the country’s drivers
- December 30, 2022
- 0
The past year has not been easy for everyone – for automakers, for dealers and for buyers. But this is not so bad – somehow we survived. The
The past year has not been easy for everyone – for automakers, for dealers and for buyers. But this is not so bad – somehow we survived. The real problem is that next year does not promise us a cloudless life either. The AvtoVzglyad portal summarized the results of 2022 and made a forecast for 2023.
That this year was terrible for the entire car industry in Russia does not need to be proven again. The departure of all Western and Japanese brands, the closure of Korean brands, long breaks in the work of domestic car factories – all this dealt a crushing blow to the car market. Our country was left without modern production and modern technologies. Too bad, because you can’t close a gap like that quickly. There is no time or targeted funding to rectify the situation, which is instead focused on graceless sales promotion. Simply put, 20 billion rubles were wasted.
TOTAL FUCK
Were there any positive moments in the automotive history of Russia-2022? If you look hard, you can of course find it. The most important of them, or rather the only one – a long-standing lie from domestic and foreign manufacturers about the high localization of production has surfaced. As soon as most routes for the supply of parts from abroad were blocked, the factories immediately stopped. And our native, scrupulously thorough AvtoVAZ was no exception: he had to stop producing the most interesting models – Largus, Vesta and XRAY. It is just a pity that the effect of the “discovery”, useful in all respects, turned out to be zero, since no one at the state level reacted to it in any way.
NO EXIT
But no matter how hard the outgoing year is, the coming year probably won’t be any easier. First, according to some economists, a crisis is slowly but surely approaching, which has nothing to do with Russia or a shortage of energy resources. The world economy is built around excess demand, which is impossible to sustain. Infrastructure gradually begins to deteriorate, production capacity decreases and retires. Our economy, carefully built into the global economy, will also suffer, which will not slow to affect the already struggling auto industry. But let’s move from global problems to our local problems.
In large quantities, cars will break down and there will be nothing to replace them – experts estimate the shortage of new cars at 1 million units next year. This is most likely a very optimistic scenario, and here’s why. And since Europe and Japan will continue to wander for the foreseeable future, in general only two players remain in Russia – domestic and Chinese manufacturers. Unless, of course, the Koreans wake up from their lethargic sleep, which will drastically change the picture.
DOUBTABLE ALLIANCE
But there is little hope for such a turn of events. With the complete absence of competitors, ours and the Chinese will occupy almost the entire market in 2023. The lion’s share of the first will get AVTOVAZ, which plans to produce 400,000 cars. True, last summer, both the president of the auto giant, Maxim Sokolov, and the head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Denis Manturov, claimed that they wanted to produce 500,000 cars at the plant, thus lowering the bar once again. to be expected. And no one will be surprised, because plans are plans and reality is reality.
For example, the same AVTOVAZ stated that it would produce about 220,000 cars in 2022. According to a very loyal estimate of the Association of European Businesses, only 164,636 cars were produced in 11 months, and in November – 21,726 units. That is to say that in reality 190,000 or, in extreme cases, 200,000 Lads per year will roll off the assembly line. Think for yourself how likely it is that Togliatti’s plans for 2023 will come true…
CHINESE FRAMEWORK
In general, as the AvtoVzglyad portal has already written, the Chinese are in no hurry to accelerate sales volumes, either fearing possible secondary sanctions, or they are quite satisfied with the significant profit they receive. And the shortfall of 1 million cars has every chance of growing to 1.5 to 2 million in the next 12 months.
…So the future of our automotive industry looks rather bleak. In addition, the sad situation has been somehow smoothed out until now by the stocks of new cars stored in warehouses. But now they are almost all sold out, and by the spring there will be none at all.
Photo by globallookpress.com
That this year was terrible for the entire car industry in Russia does not need to be proven again. The departure of all Western and Japanese brands, the closure of Korean brands, long breaks in the work of domestic car factories – all this dealt a crushing blow to the car market. Our country was left without modern production and modern technologies. Too bad, because you can’t close a gap like that quickly. There is no time or targeted funding to rectify the situation, which is instead focused on graceless sales promotion. Simply put, 20 billion rubles were wasted.
TOTAL FUCK
Were there any positive moments in the automotive history of Russia-2022? If you look hard, you can of course find it. The most important of them, or rather the only one – a long-standing lie from domestic and foreign manufacturers about the high localization of production has surfaced. As soon as most routes for the supply of parts from abroad were blocked, the factories immediately stopped. And our native, scrupulously thorough AvtoVAZ was no exception: he had to stop producing the most interesting models – Largus, Vesta and XRAY. It is just a pity that the effect of the “discovery”, useful in all respects, turned out to be zero, since no one at the state level reacted to it in any way.
NO EXIT
But no matter how hard the outgoing year is, the coming year probably won’t be any easier. First, according to some economists, a crisis is slowly but surely approaching, which has nothing to do with Russia or a shortage of energy resources. The world economy is built around excess demand, which is impossible to sustain. Infrastructure gradually begins to deteriorate, production capacity decreases and retires. Our economy, carefully built into the global economy, will also suffer, which will not slow to affect the already struggling auto industry. But let’s move from global problems to our local problems.
In large quantities, cars will break down and there will be nothing to replace them – experts estimate the shortage of new cars at 1 million units next year. This is most likely a very optimistic scenario, and here’s why. And since Europe and Japan will continue to wander for the foreseeable future, in general only two players remain in Russia – domestic and Chinese manufacturers. Unless, of course, the Koreans wake up from their lethargic sleep, which will drastically change the picture.
DOUBTABLE ALLIANCE
But there is little hope for such a turn of events. With the complete absence of competitors, ours and the Chinese will occupy almost the entire market in 2023. The lion’s share of the first will get AVTOVAZ, which plans to produce 400,000 cars. True, last summer, both the president of the auto giant, Maxim Sokolov, and the head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Denis Manturov, claimed that they wanted to produce 500,000 cars at the plant, thus lowering the bar once again. to be expected. And no one will be surprised, because plans are plans and reality is reality.
For example, the same AVTOVAZ stated that it would produce around 220,000 cars in 2022. According to a very loyal estimate of the Association of European Businesses, only 164,636 cars were produced in 11 months, and in November – 21,726 units. That is, in reality 190,000 or, in extreme cases, 200,000 Lads per year will roll off the assembly line. Think for yourself how likely it is that Togliatti’s plans for 2023 will come true…
CHINESE FRAMEWORK
In general, as the AvtoVzglyad portal has already written, the Chinese are in no hurry to accelerate sales volumes, either fearing possible secondary sanctions, or quite satisfied with the significant profit they receive. And the shortfall of 1 million cars has every chance of growing to 1.5 to 2 million in the next 12 months.
…So the future of our automotive industry looks rather bleak. In addition, the sad situation has been somehow smoothed out until now by the stocks of new cars stored in warehouses. But now they are almost all sold out, and by the spring there will be none left at all.
Source: Avto Vzglyad
Donald Salinas is an experienced automobile journalist and writer for Div Bracket. He brings his readers the latest news and developments from the world of automobiles, offering a unique and knowledgeable perspective on the latest trends and innovations in the automotive industry.
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