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A year has passed since the moment when the vast majority of foreign automakers immediately refused and refused to work for the benefit of the people of Russia.
The past year has been very colorful and uneven for the auto industry. However, the beginning was already unsuccessful – in January and February, passenger car sales fell by 4.3% without any political influence on the process. But compared to what happened next, they were flowers. In March, the market crashed 62% in one fell swoop, and then for the remaining nine months it remained in nirvana, the opposite of the petrel, which hit the wave with its wing or soared like an arrow toward the clouds. . Turnover then slowly fell even lower and then rose slowly.
And now two months of the new year, 2023, have passed. Two months in a new reality, untouched and unadorned by past achievements or failures. Surprisingly, their results coincided with the average number of sales over the entire past year. According to the bureau “AUTOSTAT”, 110.7 thousand new cars and light commercial vehicles were registered in January and February. And this is about â…™ of all registrations made during the difficult 2022. This unequivocally testifies to some kind of stabilization, reaching a certain threshold, below which there is no reason or reason to fall. From here the ascent will certainly begin.
What else have the first two months of the year brought us interesting and uplifting? Of course, the positive dynamics of production and import of transport, which is important for the economy. The number of registrations of heavy trucks increased by 5%, and buses – by 12%, compared to the same two months before the crisis. If someone says that this is not cause for optimism, I allow myself to disagree.
As for cars and light commercial vehicles, here we can still recall the words of Odysseus addressed to his nanny: “Old one, rejoice in silence! Wait a minute, don’t shout with pleasure!” Because there really is nothing to rejoice about, you just have to be gently surprised: “Well, they didn’t die!”
In the coming years, the situation has stabilized, and it is not difficult to predict the path of its development. The market will be driven by the Chinese and AVTOVAZ. No Iranians, Indians and Ugandans will not shine here. Yes, the overall quality of the brands and models presented will be lower, the variety will be smaller. But in any case, real cars will gradually appear in the showrooms. Most of the drivers are deep in the half, which the majors will be driving. In the end, let them individually bring their own Ferrari.
In the long list of brands that are officially present with us, almost the entire top ten of February is occupied by Lada and the Chinese. So they will become the locomotive of the revival of the automotive industry. And how quickly it will unravel – this depends both on external conditions and on our self-organization within the boundaries of the domestic economy. Unfortunately, there is no faith in the genius of the current leaders of the economic bloc, but Russia has always somehow managed to get out of … well, let’s say, out of a hole, despite all efforts by its indigenous elites to keep it there.
However, there is one mysterious variable in this equation. On the 5th and 6th line, Kia and Hyundai are miraculously holding, although they have shown a decrease of 74% compared to last year. The former unconditional masters of the budget segment do not give up, hoping to get through the difficult times without sharp demarches. As they say, the donkey or padishah dies. And the “Koreans” – here they are, right there. Apparently, they have something else to feed the market: registrations of foreign Russian-made cars in February amounted to 20% of the total. And to blame everything on one Haval will not work, even if you crack – the scale is not the same.
What was not justified as expected are the excessive expectations of parallel imports. Contrary to the dreams of officials, it was not originally intended as a panacea for breaking official ties with foreign manufacturers, but only as a temporary backup. Therefore, in February only 11% of all registered new passenger cars were imported in this way. Just for reference – last December it was 12%.
The percentage back and forth is irrelevant, but the trend is clear: no growth. It is very likely that the number of such machines will be reduced to very insignificant values ​​in the near future, as both the United States and its European vassals will begin to focus their sanctions on suppressing the ability to circumvent these sanctions – that is say , they especially actively fight against “grey” imports.
The past year has been very colorful and uneven for the auto industry. However, the beginning was already unsuccessful – in January and February, passenger car sales fell by 4.3% without any political influence on the process. But compared to what happened next, they were flowers. In March, the market crashed 62% in one fell swoop, and then for the remaining nine months it remained in nirvana, the opposite of the petrel, which hit the wave with its wing or soared to the clouds like an arrow. Sales then slowly fell even lower, then rose lazily.
And now two months of the new year, 2023, have passed. Two months in a new reality, untouched and unadorned by past achievements or failures. Surprisingly, their results coincided with the average number of sales over the whole of last year. According to the Avtostat agency, 110.7 thousand new cars and light commercial vehicles were registered in January and February. And this is about â…™ of all registrations made during the difficult 2022. This unequivocally testifies to some kind of stabilization, reaching a certain threshold, below which there is no reason or reason to fall. From here the ascent will certainly begin.
What else have the first two months of the year brought us interesting and uplifting? Of course, the positive dynamics of production and import of transport, which is important for the economy. The number of registrations of heavy trucks increased by 5%, and buses – by 12%, compared to the same two months before the crisis. If someone says that this is not cause for optimism, I allow myself to disagree.
As for cars and light commercial vehicles, here we can still recall the words of Odysseus addressed to his nanny: “Old one, rejoice in silence! Wait a minute, don’t shout with pleasure!” Because there really is nothing to rejoice about, you just have to be gently surprised: “Well, they didn’t die!”
In the coming years, the situation has stabilized, and it is not difficult to predict the path of its development. The market will be driven by the Chinese and AVTOVAZ. No Iranians, Indians and Ugandans will not shine here. Yes, the overall quality of the brands and models presented will be lower, the variety will be smaller. But in any case, real cars will gradually appear in the showrooms. Most of the drivers are deep in the half, which the majors will be driving. In the end, let them individually bring their own Ferrari.
In the long list of brands that are officially present with us, almost the entire top ten of February is occupied by Lada and the Chinese. So they will become the locomotive of the revival of the automotive industry. And how quickly it will unravel – this depends both on external conditions and on our self-organization within the boundaries of the domestic economy. Unfortunately, there is no faith in the genius of the current leaders of the economic bloc, but Russia has always somehow managed to get out of … well, let’s say, out of a hole, despite all efforts by its indigenous elites to keep it there.
However, there is one mysterious variable in this equation. On the 5th and 6th line, Kia and Hyundai are miraculously holding, although they have shown a decrease of 74% compared to last year. The former unconditional masters of the budget segment do not give up, hoping to get through the difficult times without sharp demarches. As they say, the donkey or padishah dies. And the “Koreans” – here they are, right there. Apparently, they have something else to feed the market: registrations of foreign Russian-made cars in February amounted to 20% of the total. And to blame everything on one Haval will not work, even if you crack – the scale is not the same.
What was not justified as expected are the excessive expectations of parallel imports. Contrary to the dreams of officials, it was not originally intended as a panacea for breaking official ties with foreign manufacturers, but only as a temporary backup. Therefore, in February only 11% of all registered new passenger cars were imported in this way. Just for reference – last December it was 12%.
The percentage back and forth is irrelevant, but the trend is clear: no growth. It is very likely that the number of such machines will be reduced to very insignificant values ​​in the near future, as both the United States and its European vassals will begin to focus their sanctions on suppressing the ability to circumvent these sanctions – that is say , they especially actively fight against “grey” imports.
Source: Avto Vzglyad
Donald Salinas is an experienced automobile journalist and writer for Div Bracket. He brings his readers the latest news and developments from the world of automobiles, offering a unique and knowledgeable perspective on the latest trends and innovations in the automotive industry.
