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Why the generals of the Russian auto industry have already lost the battle for electric cars in Russia

In February, sales of electric vehicles in our country suddenly rose to a record high – twice as many were sold as in the same period last year. What happened in our car market and is it possible to say that soon “trains” will also “bury” traditional vehicles in Russia? A correspondent from the AvtoVzglyad portal visited the roundtable of the Reedus Internet platform, where these issues were discussed.

In February, the share of electric vehicles in Russia reached 1%. In general, this is a ridiculous value, but we must not forget that a year ago it was three times less. In February 2022 it was 0.3% on the Russian market and ten years ago, at the end of 2013, it was only 0.0035%. That is, in 10 years it has grown almost 300 times, and, according to experts, this is not the limit.

– In the coming years we will see further growth and an increase in the market of electric cars to 2-3%, – Sergey Tselikov, director of the analysis bureau AUTOSTAT, is convinced. “But it’s still not enough. Even in Moscow, electric cars are almost invisible. Yes, the market is still in its infancy and will be constantly changing, just as the best-selling electric models change from year to year. However, it is not yet necessary to say that electric cars will become mass personal transport in the near future …

Jan Heitzeer, president of the National Automobile Union, agrees with the expert, comparing the prospects for mass electric mobilization in the Russian Federation with hypothetical estimates of how many carats of diamonds an average Russian citizen can afford to buy:

– The first buyers of electric trains were inspired by the fashionable idea and it was just cool to drive a Tesla. But that only applies to rich people. And when this story was just beginning, they were offered different preferences in the same Europe. We have a completely different situation – fuel costs different money, gasoline and electricity are similar in price, there is still cheap gas …

No less, according to the expert, the electromobilization of the fleet in Russia is hampered by the notorious lack of sufficient EZS. And as much as we would like to develop the charging infrastructure today, we will inevitably run into the problem that it is impossible to lay an electrical cable that provides the necessary power so that it is not cosmically expensive. In addition, few people want to spend 40 minutes to four hours refueling.

And the mileage of an electric car without charging is very limited. Electric cars will come to us in droves just when people have the financial ability and incentive to choose them and for what. Or when, following China’s lead, we introduce repression on cars with internal combustion engines.

Yes, and how much sense there is in general for a mass transition to electric vehicles, and Jan Heitzeer, and a number of world experts, doubt – why not assume that the future lies with synthetic fuel, which can quite guarantee the environmental friendliness of vehicles, although it is still quite expensive (but for now).

– Or it could be hydrogen, – developed the idea of ​​​​a colleague, the head of the working group of the ONF “Protection of the rights of motorists”, the coordinator of the “Blue Buckets” Pyotr Shkumatov. – Hydrogen vehicles are more energy intensive, their fuel cell weighs 35 kg versus the 500 kg battery for electric vehicles, and is recyclable. This is more promising for the Russian Federation. In addition, electric vehicles are not as environmentally friendly as we are told. The battery of the “electric train” contains lithium and cobalt and is poorly recycled. And although there is now a mechanism for reuse, in this case it costs three times more than it does now. Who will then have access to an electric car? Hardly anyone…

Also, the expert, like his colleagues, noted that the main problems of electric mobilization in our country today are the high cost of electric models (if we compare similar modifications, electric trains are 70% more expensive than a comparable gasoline car), limited range and lack of charging infrastructure. Residents of private households can charge electric cars at night – it is cheap and convenient, but for most people living in urban high-rise buildings – this option is clearly not suitable.

Experts do not see any special prospects for the development of electric vehicle production for domestic use. There are now too many problems facing the Russian automotive industry to focus on fashionable electric wind: we even learned how to make our own automatic transmission for cars …

Photo by globallookpress.com
Photo by globallookpress.com

In February, the share of electric vehicles in Russia reached 1%. In general, this is a ridiculous value, but we must not forget that a year ago it was three times less. In February 2022 it was 0.3% on the Russian market and ten years ago, at the end of 2013, it was only 0.0035%. That is, in 10 years it has grown almost 300 times, and, according to experts, this is not the limit.

– In the coming years we will see further growth and an increase in the market of electric cars to 2-3%, – Sergey Tselikov, director of the analysis bureau AUTOSTAT, is convinced. “But it’s still not enough. Even in Moscow, electric cars are almost invisible. Yes, the market is still in its infancy and will be constantly changing, just as the best-selling electric models change from year to year. However, it is not yet necessary to say that electric cars will become mass personal transport in the near future …

Jan Heitzeer, president of the National Automobile Union, agrees with the expert, comparing the prospects for mass electric mobilization in the Russian Federation with hypothetical estimates of how many carats of diamonds an average Russian citizen can afford to buy:

– The first buyers of electric trains were inspired by the fashionable idea and it was just cool to drive a Tesla. But that only applies to rich people. And when this story was just beginning, they were offered different preferences in the same Europe. We have a completely different situation – fuel costs different money, gasoline and electricity are similar in price, there is still cheap gas …

No less, according to the expert, the electromobilization of the fleet in Russia is hampered by the notorious lack of sufficient EZS. And as much as we would like to develop the charging infrastructure today, we will inevitably run into the problem that it is impossible to lay an electrical cable that provides the necessary power so that it is not cosmically expensive. In addition, few people want to spend 40 minutes to four hours refueling.

And the mileage of an electric car without charging is very limited. Electric cars will come to us in droves just when people have the financial ability and incentive to choose them and for what. Or when, following China’s lead, we introduce repression on cars with internal combustion engines.

Yes, and how much sense there is in general for a mass transition to electric vehicles, and Jan Heitzeer, and a number of world experts, doubt – why not assume that the future lies with synthetic fuel, which can quite guarantee the environmental friendliness of vehicles, although it is still quite expensive (but for now).

– Or it could be hydrogen, – developed the idea of ​​​​a colleague, the head of the working group of the ONF “Protection of the rights of motorists”, the coordinator of the “Blue Buckets” Pyotr Shkumatov. – Hydrogen vehicles are more energy intensive, their fuel cell weighs 35 kg versus the 500 kg battery for electric vehicles, and is recyclable. This is more promising for the Russian Federation. In addition, electric vehicles are not as environmentally friendly as we are told. The battery of the “electric train” contains lithium and cobalt and is poorly recycled. And although there is now a mechanism for reuse, in this case it costs three times more than it does now. Who will then have access to an electric car? Hardly anyone…

Also, the expert, like his colleagues, noted that the main problems of electric mobilization in our country today are the high cost of electric models (if we compare similar modifications, electric trains are 70% more expensive than a comparable gasoline car), limited range and lack of charging infrastructure. Residents of private households can charge electric cars at night – it is cheap and convenient, but for most people living in urban high-rise buildings – this option is clearly not suitable.

Experts do not see any special prospects for the development of electric vehicle production for domestic use. There are now too many problems facing the Russian automotive industry to focus on fashionable electric wind: we even learned how to make our own automatic transmission for cars …

Source: Avto Vzglyad

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