Russia is not immune to this “evil” that is endemic to most of the nations on the planet: Its population is aging while birth rates are falling. With one caveat: the nation is fully engaged in a war, so the situation is a little more serious, if possible. Big evils, big dystopian solutions. If we learn this week about the proposal in Japan to ban women over 25 from marrying, Russia faces “force” by approving an unclassifiable law.

Russian context and motivation. Russia’s State Duma unanimously passed a law banning so-called “childless propaganda” in an attempt to boost the declining birth rate. The move comes after official data showed the country’s lowest birth rates in 25 years; The Kremlin described this as a “catastrophic” for the future of the country, especially in the context of the war in Ukraine, which increased the death toll.

Values. In this context, President Putin, who highlighted “traditional values” as a response to the values ​​he thought were declining in the West, encouraged women to have at least three children to ensure the continuity of the Russian people.

Despite fiscal incentives and other incentive policies, the government feels the need to restrict messaging it says discourages motherhood. To put it simply another way: For example, a woman is legally prohibited from expressing publicly or privately that she does not want to have children.

“New” law. The new legislation, widely supported by the Kremlin, criminalizes the ban on any “propaganda” that makes the option of not having children attractive, including in the media, the internet, movies and/or advertising. Penalties for non-compliance can reach up to US$4,000 for individuals and US$50,000 for legal entities. This law also adds to other restrictions in Russia, such as promoting “non-traditional lifestyles” and banning content critical of the conflict in Ukraine.

Worries. As Kremlin spokesman Dmitry S. Peskov explained, demography is a significant challenge for Russia and all possible measures must be taken to increase birth rates. There is some data in the background that is not misleading: deaths have exceeded births in Russia since 2016, and although immigration has helped keep the population stable, the number of immigrants has decreased due to harshness towards migrant workers and falling wages.

The pandemic and now the war in Ukraine have made the problem worse; An estimated 150,000 Russian soldiers died.

Shapes and perspectives. In Russia, 599,600 births were recorded in the first half of 2024; This is 16,000 fewer than in the same period in 2023 and the lowest figure since 1999. In addition, deaths increased by 49,000, but on the other hand, migration increased by 20%. According to CIA estimates, Russia will be among the 40 countries with the lowest birth rate in 2023.

No doubt, many Russian women question whether the solution to the birth rate problem involves restricting “childless propaganda.” They point out that, in most cases, the real reasons behind many people’s decision not to have children are lack of financial resources and economic insecurity. Cases such as Alina Rzhanova from Yaroslavl, who emphasized that “people want children, but there is no money.” Yana, a woman in Moscow who chooses not to have children, also argues that providing reasonable and affordable living conditions would be more effective than imposing a ban.

A breeding ground. Essentially, as noted in the New York Times, it is very possible that Russia will use this law, at least in part, to position itself ideologically against the West. Duma speaker Vyacheslav Volodin even stated that “Western policy towards children is a disaster” and emphasized that new generations should be raised according to traditional family values.

However, experts question the effectiveness of this measure in increasing birth rates. Demographer Alexey Raksha stated that this ban will not affect Russia’s birth rate and that it is a political decision rather than a demographic one. According to 2022 surveys, only 2.4% of Russian women and 3.5% of men said they did not want to have children. According to political analyst Ilya Grashchenkov, the government uses these laws to strengthen its commitment to traditional values ​​by comparing them with those of the West.

In short, it seems clear that the new law reflects the government’s insistence on strengthening traditional family values, a pillar of Russian identity. But it is also possible that, as in many other countries where birth rates have acquired the meaning of a crisis, the real demographic drive lies not in sanctions but in the improvement of living conditions reflected elsewhere, for example by women. or censor alternative life options more typical of science fiction.

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